This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8505 (+3 or +0.04%)
AU200 is showing a very weak upward movement, gaining just 3 points this week, indicating minimal change in trend direction.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Tue 15:30 – AUD RBA Press Conference
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Jan)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8526. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8547, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8569 and potentially 8611.
If we cannot close above 8484, we could see a move back to test 8463 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8442, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8400.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 22534 (+749 or +3.44%)
The DAX is trending strongly upward with a significant move of 749 points, signalling solid bullish momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Feb)
Thu 16:30 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Jan)
Thu 18:00 – EUR PPI MoM (Jan)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 22690. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 22846, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23003 and potentially 23281.
If we cannot close above 22378, we could see a move back to test 22222 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 22065, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 21787.
US
S&P 500 – 6119 (+73 or +1.21%)
The US500 is trending higher with moderate strength, showing steady upward momentum after gaining 73 points this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb)
Thu 00:30 – USD Housing Starts (Jan)
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6134. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6150, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6165 and potentially 6195.
If we cannot close above 6104, we could see a move back to test 6088 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6073, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6043.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6360 (+95 or +1.52%)
The AUDUSD shows strong bullish momentum with a solid 0.0095 move upwards, indicating potential for further gains.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Tue 15:30 – AUD RBA Press Conference
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Jan)
Wed 00:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb)
Thu 00:30 – USD Housing Starts (Jan)
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6385. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6405, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6425 and potentially 0.6480.
If we cannot close above 0.6335, we could see a move back to test 0.6315 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6285, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6230.
EUR/USD – 1.0500 (+190 or +1.84%)
The EURUSD has made a strong move up, gaining 190 pips this week, signaling bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Feb)
Thu 16:30 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Jan)
Thu 18:00 – EUR PPI MoM (Jan)
Wed 00:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb)
Thu 00:30 – USD Housing Starts (Jan)
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0538. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0570, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0603 and potentially 1.0631.
If we cannot close above 1.0463, we could see a move back to test 1.0419 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0386, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0328.
GBP/USD – 1.2594 (+204 or +1.65%)
The GBPUSD has shown strong upward momentum, with a notable move of 0.0204, indicating bullish market strength.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:00 – GBP Employment Change (Dec)
Tue 18:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate (Dec)
Wed 18:00 – GBP Inflation Rate YoY (Jan)
Wed 00:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb)
Thu 00:30 – USD Housing Starts (Jan)
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2618. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2644, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2670 and potentially 1.2732.
If we cannot close above 1.2570, we could see a move back to test 1.2544 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2518, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2466.
USD/JPY – 151.80 (-22 or -0.14%)
The USDJPY is showing slight weakness with a small downtrend of 0.22, indicating a mild bearish shift.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 10:50 – JPY GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
Wed 10:50 – JPY Balance of Trade (Jan)
Wed 10:50 – JPY Exports YoY (Jan)
Wed 00:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb)
Thu 00:30 – USD Housing Starts (Jan)
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 152.08. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 152.58, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 153.08 and potentially 154.28.
If we cannot close above 151.30, we could see a move back to test 150.80 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 150.30, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 149.08.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2894 (+19 or +0.66%)
Gold is showing a steady bullish trend with a moderate move up of 19 points this week, signaling strength.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2899. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2904, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2909 and potentially 2918.
If we cannot close above 2889, we could see a move back to test 2884 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2879, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2870.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 96367 (-75 or -0.08%)
Bitcoin shows a slight downtrend with a minimal decrease of 75, indicating a weak move so far this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 96,499. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 96,631, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 96,763 and potentially 96,922.
If we cannot close above 96,499, we could see a move back to test 96,235 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 96,103, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 95,944.
