This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8427 (+69 or +0.83%)
AU200 is trending strongly upward, gaining 69 points this week — a solid move showing bullish momentum building across the index.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Wed 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8448. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8469, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8490 and potentially 8522.
If we cannot close above 8406, we could see a move back to test 8385 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8364, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8301.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 23998 (+183 or +0.77%)
DAX30 is trending modestly higher, gaining 183 points — a steady move suggesting cautious optimism in the current market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Fri 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24058. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24118, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24178 and potentially 24297.
If we cannot close above 23938, we could see a move back to test 23878 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23818, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23699.
US
S&P 500 – 5886 (+36 or +0.62%)
US500 is edging higher with a 36-point gain — a mild uptrend showing steady momentum but lacking strong conviction so far.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/31)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5900. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5915, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5929 and potentially 5959.
If we cannot close above 5872, we could see a move back to test 5857 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5843, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5813.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6458 (-40 or -0.62%)
AUDUSD is drifting lower, slipping 40 pips — a mild pullback that signals short-term weakness without major bearish pressure yet.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Wed 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/31)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6474. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6490, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6508 and potentially 0.6540.
If we cannot close above 0.6442, we could see a move back to test 0.6426 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6408, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6376.
EUR/USD – 1.1371 (-5 or -0.04%)
EURUSD is holding steady, down just 5 pips — showing virtually no directional bias in a quiet, consolidating market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Fri 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Apr)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/31)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1400. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1428, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1456 and potentially 1.1513.
If we cannot close above 1.1342, we could see a move back to test 1.1314 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1286, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1229.
GBP/USD – 1.3489 (-50 or -0.37%)
GBPUSD is slipping slightly, down 50 pips — a mild downward move reflecting cautious selling pressure without strong bearish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Wed 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (May)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Halifax House Price Index YoY (May)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/31)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3523. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3556, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3589 and potentially 1.3657.
If we cannot close above 1.3454, we could see a move back to test 1.3420 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3387, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3319.
USD/JPY – 143.55 (+76 or +0.53%)
USDJPY is climbing steadily, up 76 pips — a moderate bullish move indicating renewed strength in the dollar against the yen.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:50 – JPY Capital Spending YoY (Q1)
Fri 09:30 – JPY Household Spending YoY (Apr)
Mon (Jun 9) 09:50 – JPY GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/31)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 143.91. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 144.27, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 144.62 and potentially 145.34.
If we cannot close above 143.18, we could see a move back to test 142.82 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 142.46, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 141.74.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3310 (-27 or -0.81%)
Gold is trending lower, down 27 points — a mild retreat suggesting softening demand or profit-taking after recent highs.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3318. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3327, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3337 and potentially 3351.
If we cannot close above 3301, we could see a move back to test 3292 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3282, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3268.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 105323 (-3490 or -3.21%)
Bitcoin is pulling back sharply, dropping 3,490 points, a notable decline that signals weakening momentum and possible risk-off sentiment.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 105586. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 105849, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 106112 and potentially 106643.
If we cannot close above 105060, we could see a move back to test 104797 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 104534, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 104003.
