This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8271 (-125 or -1.49%)
The AU200 experienced a significant bearish move this week, dropping 125 points from 8396 to 8271.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Dec)
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
Wed 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8292. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8312, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8334 and potentially 8374.
If we cannot close above 8250, we could see a move back to test 8230 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8208, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8168.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 20441 (+60 or +0.29%)
The DAX30 shows a weak upward trend this week, with a modest 60-point gain indicating limited bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Dec)
Tue 21:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Dec)
Wed 21:00 – EUR CPI (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 20492. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 20543, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 20594 and potentially 20696.
If we cannot close above 20390, we could see a move back to test 20339 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 20288, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 20186.
US
S&P 500 – 6047 (-38 or -0.62%)
The US500 has trended slightly lower this week, showing a moderate bearish move of 38 points from last week’s level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Nov)
Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6062. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6077, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6092 and potentially 6119.
If we cannot close above 6032, we could see a move back to test 6017 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6002, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5972.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6366 (-30 or -0.47%)
AUDUSD is trending lower with a moderate decline, reflecting bearish sentiment as the pair moves 30 pips downward this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Dec)
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
Wed 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Dec)
Tue 00:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Nov)
Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6382. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6398, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6413 and potentially 0.6446.
If we cannot close above 0.6350, we could see a move back to test 0.6334 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6319, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6287.
EUR/USD – 1.0505 (-56 or -0.53%)
EURUSD is trending lower with a moderate bearish move, dropping 56 pips this week, signaling continued downside pressure.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Dec)
Tue 21:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Dec)
Wed 21:00 – EUR CPI (Nov)
Tue 00:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Nov)
Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0530. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0565, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0599 and potentially 1.0631.
If we cannot close above 1.0479, we could see a move back to test 1.0444 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0410, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0378.
GBP/USD – 1.2623 (-122 or -0.96%)
The GBPUSD shows a strong bullish trend with a notable 1.2% move higher this week, signaling momentum upwards.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate (Oct)
Tue 20:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
Wed 18:00 – GBP Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)
Tue 00:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Nov)
Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2646. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2671, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2696 and potentially 1.2749.
If we cannot close above 1.2598, we could see a move back to test 1.2573 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2548, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2495.
USD/JPY – 153.49 (+346 or +2.31%)
The USDJPY has surged significantly, with a strong upward move of over 300 points, signaling bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 10:50 – JPY Balance of Trade (Nov)
Wed 10:50 – JPY Exports YoY (Nov)
Thu 14:00 – JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Tue 00:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Nov)
Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 153.86. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 154.23, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 154.60 and potentially 155.18.
If we cannot close above 153.16, we could see a move back to test 152.79 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 152.42, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 151.84.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2648 (+16 or +0.61%)
Gold is showing a moderate bullish move, up by 16 points this week, indicating a positive short-term trend.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2656. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2674, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2687 and potentially 2706.
If we cannot close above 2640, we could see a move back to test 2620 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2607, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2591.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 104319 (+4279 or +4.28%)
Bitcoin is showing strong bullish momentum with a notable move from 100040 to 104319, signaling potential for further gains.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 104818. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 105318, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 105818 and potentially 106318.
If we cannot close above 104819, we could see a move back to test 104819 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 104319, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 103819.
