This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8502 (+139 or +1.66%)
AU200 is trending higher with a solid upward move from 8363 to 8502, signalling a strong bullish momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Feb)
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jan)
Wed 11:30 – AUD Home Loans QoQ (Q4)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8523. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8545, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8568 and potentially 8610.
If we cannot close above 8481, we could see a move back to test 8459 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8437, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8395.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 21785 (+498 or +2.34%)
DAX30 is trending higher with a solid move, gaining 498 points. Momentum looks strong, signalling potential for further upside.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:30 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Q4)
Thu 16:30 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Jan)
Thu 21:00 – EUR Industrial Production MoM (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 21839. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 21894, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 21950 and potentially 22057.
If we cannot close above 21731, we could see a move back to test 21676 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 21620, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 21513.
US
S&P 500 – 6046 (+125 or +2.11%)
The US500 is trending strongly upward with a solid move, signalling strong bullish momentum as it pushes past 6000.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 02:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Thu 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Jan)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/08)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6061. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6076, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6091 and potentially 6121.
If we cannot close above 6031, we could see a move back to test 6016 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6001, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5971.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6265 (+119 or +1.94%)
AUD/USD is trending higher with a solid move. The upside momentum is strong, signalling a potential continuation if buyers remain in control.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Feb)
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jan)
Wed 11:30 – AUD Home Loans QoQ (Q4)
Wed 02:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Thu 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Jan)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/08)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6280. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6296, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6312 and potentially 6343.
If we cannot close above 6250, we could see a move back to test 6234 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6218, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6188.
EUR/USD – 1.0310 (+64 or +0.62%)
EURUSD is trending higher with a moderate gain, signalling steady bullish momentum. A sustained breakout could lead to further upside movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:30 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Q4)
Thu 16:30 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Jan)
Thu 21:00 – EUR Industrial Production MoM (Dec)
Wed 02:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Thu 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Jan)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/08)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0345. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0360, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0385 and potentially 1.0438.
If we cannot close above 1.0285, we could see a move back to test 1.0260 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0235, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0182.
GBP/USD – 1.2390 (+94 or +0.76%)
The GBPUSD is showing a strong downward trend, with a significant move of 0.0165, indicating weakness in the market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 18:00 – GBP GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
Thu 18:00 – GBP Goods Trade Balance (Dec)
Thu 18:00 – GBP GDP MoM (Dec)
Wed 02:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Thu 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Jan)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/08)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2415. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2440, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2465 and potentially 1.2505.
If we cannot close above 1.2365, we could see a move back to test 1.2340 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2315, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2265.
USD/JPY – 152.02 (-337 or -2.17%)
The USDJPY is in a strong bearish trend, dropping significantly from 155.39 to 152.02—an impressive move downward.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 10:50 – JPY Current Account (Dec)
Wed 02:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Thu 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Jan)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/08)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 152.55. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 153.02, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 153.52 and potentially 154.52.
If we cannot close above 151.47, we could see a move back to test 150.97 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 150.47, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 149.52.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2875 (+80 or +2.86%)
Gold is trending strongly upward with a significant move from 2795 to 2875, indicating bullish momentum this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2884. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2895, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2906 and potentially 2934.
If we cannot close above 2884, we could see a move back to test 2865 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2854, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2840.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 96213 (-913 or -0.94%)
Bitcoin is experiencing a weak bearish trend with a significant drop of 933 points, indicating potential further downside movement.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 97,442. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 98,137, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 98,832 and potentially 100,367.
If we cannot close above 96,747, we could see a move back to test 95,953 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 95,258, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 93,723.
