Market Brief


Are rising geopolitical risks now overriding macro data and driving market direction?

Could this shift trigger further downside across global equities and sustained upside in safe-haven assets?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8916 (+532 or +6.35%)

The ASX surged higher this week with a strong +6.35% gain, showing clear bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 12:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD)

Thu 12:30 – Employment Change (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8938. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8961, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8983 and potentially 9027.

If we cannot close above 8894, we could see a move back to test 8871 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8849, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8805.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 23521 (+1554 or +7.07%)

The DAX rallied strongly this week with a solid +7.07% gain, showing powerful bullish momentum and continued upside strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 21:00 – ECB Guindos Speech (EUR)

Mon 23:15 – ECB Guindos Speech (EUR)

Thu 22:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23580. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23639, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23697 and potentially 23815.

If we cannot close above 23462, we could see a move back to test 23403 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23345, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23227.

US

S&P 500 – 6764 (+444 or +7.03%)

The SPX pushed higher this week with a strong +7.03% gain, showing solid bullish momentum and upward trend strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:00 – Existing Home Sales (USD)

Tue 23:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6781. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6798, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6815 and potentially 6849.

If we cannot close above 6747, we could see a move back to test 6730 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6713, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6679.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.7036 (+192 or +2.81%)

AUDUSD moved higher this week with a solid +2.81% gain, showing improving bullish momentum and continued upside pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 12:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD)

Thu 12:30 – Employment Change (AUD)

Tue 01:00 – Existing Home Sales (USD)

Tue 23:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7054. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7071, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7089 and potentially 0.7124.

If we cannot close above 0.7018, we could see a move back to test 0.7001 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6983, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6948.

EUR/USD – 1.1687 (+196 or +1.71%)

EURUSD climbed higher this week with a +1.71% gain, showing steady bullish momentum and a firm upward trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 21:00 – ECB Guindos Speech (EUR)

Mon 23:15 – ECB Guindos Speech (EUR)

Thu 22:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR)

Tue 01:00 – Existing Home Sales (USD)

Tue 23:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1716. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1745, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1775 and potentially 1.1833.

If we cannot close above 1.1658, we could see a move back to test 1.1629 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1599, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1541.

GBP/USD – 1.3402 (+169 or +1.28%)

GBPUSD edged higher this week with a +1.28% gain, showing moderate bullish momentum and continued upside support.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (GBP)

Thu 17:00 – GDP MoM (GBP)

Thu 17:00 – Goods Trade Balance (GBP)

Tue 01:00 – Existing Home Sales (USD)

Tue 23:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3436. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3469, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3503 and potentially 1.3570.

If we cannot close above 1.3368, we could see a move back to test 1.3335 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3301, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3234.


USD/JPY – 159.69 (-47 or -0.29%)

USDJPY eased lower this week with a -0.29% move, showing mild bearish pressure and weakening upside momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 10:50 – Machinery Orders MoM (JPY)

Wed 10:50 – Machinery Orders YoY (JPY)

Mon 11:00 – BOJ Gov Ueda Speech (JPY)

Tue 01:00 – Existing Home Sales (USD)

Tue 23:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 160.09. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 160.49, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160.89 and potentially 161.69.

If we cannot close above 159.29, we could see a move back to test 158.89 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 158.49, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 157.69.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4720 (+102 or +2.35%)

Gold surged higher this week with a strong +6.33% gain, showing clear bullish momentum and continued upward strength.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4732. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4744, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4755 and potentially 4779.

If we cannot close above 4708, we could see a move back to test 4696 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4685, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4661.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 71044 (+5224 or +7.94%)

BTC surged higher this week with a powerful +7.94% gain, showing strong bullish momentum and aggressive upside continuation.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 71222. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 71399, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 71577 and potentially 71932.

If we cannot close above 70866, we could see a move back to test 70689 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 70511, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 70156.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.