Market Brief


Could improving risk sentiment and continued AI demand now trigger another breakout phase across global equity markets?

Are traders starting to position for a stronger move higher as volatility stabilises and momentum returns?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8674 (+145 or +1.7%)

The ASX surged higher this week with a strong +1.7% gain, showing continued bullish momentum and market strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (Apr) (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Apr) (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (Apr) (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8696. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8717, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8739 and potentially 8782.

If we cannot close above 8652, we could see a move back to test 8631 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8609, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8566.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25045 (+1289 or +5.43%)

The DAX rallied aggressively this week, posting a strong +5.43% gain and showing powerful bullish momentum across the market.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – CPI (EUR)

Thu 17:00 – Retail Sales MoM (Apr) (EUR)

Fri 16:45 – Inflation Rate YoY (May) (EUR)

Fri 17:55 – Unemployment Rate (May) (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25108. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25170, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25233 and potentially 25358.

If we cannot close above 24982, we could see a move back to test 24920 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24857, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24732.

US

S&P 500 – 7522 (+155 or +2.1%)

The SPX pushed higher this week with a strong +2.1% gain, continuing to show solid bullish market momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr) (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7541. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7560, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7578 and potentially 7616.

If we cannot close above 7503, we could see a move back to test 7484 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7466, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7428.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.7161 (+32 or +0.45%)

The AUDUSD moved higher this week with a modest +0.45% gain, maintaining steady bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (Apr) (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Apr) (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (Apr) (AUD) 

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr) (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7180. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7215 and potentially 0.7251.

If we cannot close above 0.7144, we could see a move back to test 0.7126 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7108, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7071.

EUR/USD – 1.1636 (+19 or +0.16%)

The EURUSD edged higher this week with a moderate +0.16% gain, continuing to hold a stable bullish trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 17:00 – Retail Sales MoM (Apr) (EUR)

Fri 16:45 – Inflation Rate YoY (May) (EUR)

Fri 17:55 – Unemployment Rate (May) (EUR) 

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr) (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1665. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1694, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1723 and potentially 1.1781.

If we cannot close above 1.1607, we could see a move back to test 1.1578 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1549, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1491.

GBP/USD – 1.3479 (+168 or +1.26%)

The GBPUSD rallied strongly this week with a solid +1.26% gain, showing continued bullish momentum and market strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 20:00 – CBI Distributive Trades (May) (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (May) (GBP)

Fri 18:20 – BoE Gov Bailey Speech (GBP) 

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr) (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3531. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3564, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3598 and potentially 1.3666.

If we cannot close above 1.3463, we could see a move back to test 1.3429 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3396, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3328.


USD/JPY – 158.87 (-3 or -0.02%)

The USDJPY remained relatively flat this week, posting a slight -0.02% decline and showing neutral market momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 10:00 – BoJ Gov Ueda Speech (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Unemployment Rate (Apr) (JPY)

Fri 15:00 – Consumer Confidence (May) (JPY) 

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr) (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 159.27. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 159.66, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160.06 and potentially 160.86.

If we cannot close above 158.47, we could see a move back to test 158.08 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 157.68, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 156.88.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4564 (+34 or +0.75%)

Gold moved higher this week with a solid +0.75% gain, continuing to show steady bullish momentum across the market. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4575. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4587, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4598 and potentially 4621.

If we cannot close above 4553, we could see a move back to test 4541 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4530, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4507.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  76970 (+79 or +0.1%)

Bitcoin traded slightly higher this week with a modest +0.1% gain, continuing to hold stable bullish market momentum. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 77162. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 77355, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 77547 and potentially 77932.

If we cannot close above 76778, we could see a move back to test 76585 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 76393, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 76008.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.