Market Brief


Will elevated oil prices continue to fuel global inflation concerns, putting further pressure on interest rate expectations and major stock markets?

Could further geopolitical developments drive renewed volatility in Gold, the SPX and DAX?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8875  (+131 or +1.5% )

The ASX surged higher this week with a solid +1.50% gain, showing continued strength and bullish momentum. 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Tue 14:30 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8897. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8919, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8942 and potentially 8986.

If we cannot close above 8853, we could see a move back to test 8831 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8808, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8764.

EUROPE

DAX (30) –  25780 (+580 or +2.3%)

The DAX rallied strongly this week with a +2.30% gain, demonstrating solid buying momentum and continued bullish strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 18:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Wed 21:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Fri 21:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25844. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25909, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25973 and potentially 26102.

If we cannot close above 25716, we could see a move back to test 25651 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25587, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 25458.

US

S&P 500 –  7580  (-73 or -0.95%)

The SPX declined this week by -0.95%, reflecting increased selling pressure and a shift towards bearish momentum. 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 02:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Sat 00:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

Sat 00:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7599. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7618, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7637 and potentially 7675.

If we cannot close above 7561, we could see a move back to test 7542 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7523, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7485.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.7031 (-6 or -0.09%)

The AUDUSD edged slightly lower this week by -0.09%, showing limited downside momentum as the currency pair remained relatively stable.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Tue 14:30 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

Tue 02:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Sat 00:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

Sat 00:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7049. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7066, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7084 and potentially 0.7119.

If we cannot close above 0.7013, we could see a move back to test 0.6996 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6978, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6943.

EUR/USD – 1.1156 (-52 or -0.46%)

The EURUSD moved lower this week by -0.46%, reflecting moderate selling pressure and a slightly bearish short-term trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 18:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Wed 21:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Fri 21:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Tue 02:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Sat 00:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

Sat 00:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1184. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1212, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1240 and potentially 1.1295.

If we cannot close above 1.1128, we could see a move back to test 1.1100 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1072, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1017.

GBP/USD –  1.3387 (+15 or +0.11%)

The GBPUSD edged higher this week with a modest +0.11% gain, showing mild bullish momentum despite relatively limited price movement.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP)

Thu 23:00 – BoE Monetary Policy Report (GBP)

Thu 23:00 – MPC Meeting Minutes (GBP)

Tue 02:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Sat 00:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

Sat 00:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3420. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3454, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3487 and potentially 1.3554.

If we cannot close above 1.3354, we could see a move back to test 1.3320 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3287, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3220.


USD/JPY –  157.49 (+61 or +0.39%)

The USDJPY climbed higher this week with a +0.39% gain, showing steady buying interest and continued bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 10:50 – BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY)

Fri 10:30 – Average Cash Earnings YoY (JPY)

Fri 10:30 – Overtime Pay YoY (JPY)

Tue 02:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Sat 00:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

Sat 00:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.88. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.28, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.67 and potentially 159.46.

If we cannot close above 157.10, we could see a move back to test 156.70 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.31, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.52.

COMMODITIES

GOLD –  3876  (-125 or -3.12%)

Gold dropped sharply this week by -3.12%, reflecting strong selling pressure and a significant shift towards bearish momentum. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3886. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3895, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3905 and potentially 3924.

If we cannot close above 3866, we could see a move back to test 3857 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3847, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3828.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 77807 (-2575 or -3.2%)

Bitcoin declined sharply this week by -3.20%, showing increased selling pressure and a clear shift towards bearish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 78002. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 78196, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 78391 and potentially 78780.

If we cannot close above 77612, we could see a move back to test 77418 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 77223, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 76834.

DISCLAIMER

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