This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8537 (+96 or +1.14%)
AU200 shows a steady bullish trend with moderate strength after gaining ~1.1% week-on-week; momentum building above key levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Wed 01:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM
Thu 01:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8558. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8579, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8600 and potentially 8644.
If we cannot close above 8516, we could see a move back to test 8495 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8474, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8430.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 24116 (+899 or +3.87%)
DAX30 surges strongly with a ~3.9% rally; bullish momentum accelerating, signaling powerful upside continuation if key levels hold.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 08:00 – EUR Bavaria CPI YoY
Tue 07:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate
Fri 08:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24176. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24236, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24296 and potentially 24418.
If we cannot close above 24056, we could see a move back to test 23996 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23936, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23814.
US
S&P 500 – 6186 (+245 or +4.12%)
US500 posts a strong breakout with a ~4.1% surge; bullish momentum intensifying, eyeing further highs if support holds.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 12:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls
Wed 12:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
Wed 14:00 – USD ISM Services PMI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6202. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6217, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6233 and potentially 6263.
If we cannot close above 6170, we could see a move back to test 6155 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6140, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6110.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6536 (+98 or +1.52%)
AUDUSD climbs solidly with a ~1.5% rise; bullish momentum steady, watching key levels for continued upside confirmation.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Wed 01:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM
Thu 01:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
Wed 12:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls
Wed 12:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
Wed 14:00 – USD ISM Services PMI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6552. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6569, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6585 and potentially 0.6617.
If we cannot close above 0.6520, we could see a move back to test 0.6503 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6487, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6455.
EUR/USD – 1.1727 (+239 or +2.08%)
EURUSD jumps strongly with a ~2.1% rally; bullish surge gathering pace, testing key levels for sustained upside continuation.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 08:00 – EUR Bavaria CPI YoY
Tue 07:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate
Fri 08:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY
Wed 12:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls
Wed 12:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
Wed 14:00 – USD ISM Services PMI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1756. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1785, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1814 and potentially 1.1874.
If we cannot close above 1.1698, we could see a move back to test 1.1669 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1640, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1580.
GBP/USD – 1.3720 (+299 or +2.23%)
GBPUSD rockets higher with a ~2.2% rally; strong bullish momentum, eyes on breakout levels for extended upside potential.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 08:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Thu 08:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI
Fri 08:30 – GBP S&P Global Construction PMI
Wed 12:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls
Wed 12:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
Wed 14:00 – USD ISM Services PMI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3754. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3788, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3822 and potentially 1.3891.
If we cannot close above 1.3686, we could see a move back to test 1.3652 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3618, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3549.
USD/JPY – 144.55 (-190 or -1.3%)
USDJPY slips with a ~1.3% drop; bearish momentum emerging, key levels critical for confirmation of deeper downside risk.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:50 – JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Tue 05:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence
Thu 23:30 – JPY Household Spending YoY
Wed 12:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls
Wed 12:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
Wed 14:00 – USD ISM Services PMI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 144.91. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 145.27, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 145.64 and potentially 146.35.
If we cannot close above 144.19, we could see a move back to test 143.83 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 143.46, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 142.75.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3268 (-98 or -2.91%)
Gold tumbles with a sharp ~2.9% drop; bearish momentum intensifies, eyes on support levels for further downside signals.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3276. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3284, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3293 and potentially 3309.
If we cannot close above 3260, we could see a move back to test 3252 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3243, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3227.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 108275 (+7620 or +7.57%)
Bitcoin explodes with a powerful ~7.6% surge; bullish momentum surging, watch key levels for potential continued breakout higher.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 108546. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 108817, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 109088 and potentially 109621.
If we cannot close above 108004, we could see a move back to test 107733 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 107462, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 106929.
