This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6064 ( +40 or +0.66% )
The ASX was only marginally higher and is back to the same levels we opened at in 2018.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX break and close above 6070. Should this occur we will look for this market to re-test 6140, and a break above this level could see a quick move to 6175. A strong break above this level however could see a move into 6250 and 6315 by the week’s end.
If the ASX cannot close above 6070, we will look for a move back down into 6000. A break below this level is likely to see a retest of 5986 and further downside may result in a sharp move lower into 5921.
EUROPE
DAX – 13387 ( -78 or -0.58% )
After a strong start early in the week the DAX struggled to hold its all-time highs and continues to chop in and out around this key double top area. We have been warning about this behaviour in our MEMBER PORTAL, and will be discussing this again in more detail this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue – German Prelim CPI (monthly)
Wed 18:00 – German Retail Sales (monthly)
For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the DAX close above 13388, on its way to retesting 13520. A strong break and close above this level could see a fast move to 13697, and if momentum is very strong we could see a sharp move higher into 13819.
If the DAX fails to hold above 13388, we could see a move back down into 13205. A break below this level could mean a strong move down into the key 13050 level.
US
SP500 – 2873 ( +63 or +2.24% )
The S&P has now reached one of our long term targets in 2870 as we anticipated at the beginning of the year and we are now watching this market closely heading into this all-important week. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 02:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 13:00 – President Trump Speaks
Thu 06:00 – FOMC Fed Interest Rate – LIVE TV
Fri 12:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls – LIVE TV
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2870. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2889 and 2902. A strong break and close above this level could then be followed by FAST moves into 2924 and 2957!
If we cannot hold above 2870, we will look for a move back down to 2828 and 2808 before a pause. A close below this level could see a sharper move down 2790 and 2778, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 2736.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.8106 ( +124 or +1.55% )
The Aussie Dollar has again closed right at one of our key levels and things are getting very interesting now. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
For a move higher we must now see this market break and close strongly through 0.8118. Should this occur we will look for this market to rally into 0.8162, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.8301.
If we cannot close above 0.8118, we will look for a move back down to 0.8034. A break below this level is likely to see another test of 0.8000, and if momentum to the downside continues we may see a move lower into they key area between 0.7934 – 0.7903.
EUR/USD – 1.2428 ( +209 or +1.71% )
Last week we covered the ECB decision LIVE and were not surprised by the outcome with it playing out exactly as anticipated. This week the EURO faces stiff resistance, can it continue to break higher?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – Prelim Flash GDP (quarterly)
Wed 21:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual)
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO break and close above the very important 1.2520 level, followed by a strong push into 1.2605 before another pause. Should this occur we could then see a very strong rally into 1.2769.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.2520, we could see a move back down to retest 1.2360. A close below this level is then likely to see a retest of the key level at 1.2268 before a pause. A strong break below this level may result in another move lower into 1.2167 and if momentum is very strong, we cannot rule out a big move lower into 1.2042.
GBP/USD – 1.4150 ( +303 or +2.19% )
Like the EURO, the Pound has rallied right into one of our key areas and this will be a key week for this market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 02:30 – BoE Governor Carney Testifies
Thu 20:30 – Manufacturing PMI
Fri 20:30 – Construction PMI
For a move to the upside we would like to see a strong break and close above 1.4259. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 1.4382. A close above this level is likely to result in a push into 1.4469, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a blow-off move to 1.4630.
On the downside, a strong close below 1.4075 could see the Pound tumble to 1.3875 – 1.3853 before a pause. Should we break this level however, we could see this market fall further into 1.3743 – 1.3725, and potentially lower into 1.3683 and 1.3654.
USD/JPY – 108.63 ( -219 or -1.98% )
The $/YEN continues to face downside pressure and like other markets, we are at very important levels here.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Unemployment Rate
Tue 10:50 – Retail Sales (annual)
Tue 16:00 – Core CPI (annual)
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78.
If we cannot hold above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1350 ( +19 or +1.43% )
There is some very interesting action in GOLD and last week was no exception with this market really testing some of our upper levels. Is a short-term top in? We will be discussing this market in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
For a continued move higher we would like to see this market hold and close strongly above 1355. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1365, and a strong break above this level could see GOLD revisit 1374 quickly. If momentum is very strong to the upside we cannot rule out a big move to 1393.
If Gold cannot hold above 1355, we will look for a move back down into 1333. A close below this level could see further downside into 1322, and if momentum is very strong we will look a push lower into 1313 and 1303 before the week’s end.
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