This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5728 ( -163 or -2.77% )
The ASX reversed all of its gains last week as sellers regained control of this market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tue 19:20 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5777, and a strong close above this could result in a quick move to 5823. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5875 and 5921.
If the ASX cannot close and hold above 5746, we are likely to see a quick move down into 5648. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong a move down into 5582 and 5521 cannot be ruled out.
EUROPE
DAX – 11373 ( -168 or -1.46% )
The DAX also drifted lower last week and we are now seeing some interesting signs in this market. We will be discussing this in more detail this week in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 23:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
Fri 19:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Fri 19:30 – German Flash Services PMI
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above 11566. Should this occur we will look for a move into the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054.
If the DAX fails to close above 11566, we will look for a move back down to 11362; and any strong closes below this area could see a retest of 11184. A break and close below this level could result in a further move down into 11050, and if momentum to the downside is very strong a move into 10863 cannot be ruled out
US
SP500 – 2740 ( -36 or -1.3% )
The S&P enters an important week and all eyes are on this market to see how it closes out on Friday. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
NOTE: Thursday is a public holiday in the US (Thanksgiving Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – Building Permits
Wed 00:30 – Housing Starts
Thu 00:30 – Durable Goods Orders (monthly)
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2760. Should this occur we could see another retest of 2808, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 2838.
If we cannot close above 2760, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2704 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2680; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2660 and 2638.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7331 ( +106 or +1.47% )
The Aussie dollar continues to rally and is now poised for a move into 75c. Will we see this level reached this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tue 19:20 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
For a move higher we would like to see the AUD hold above 0.7282, followed by a retest and close above 0.7364. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7447 before a pause; and if momentum remains very strong we will look for a big move into 0.7489.
If we cannot close above 0.7282, we will look for a move back down to 0.7229. A strong break below this level may result in a move down into 0.7169 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7112.
EUR/USD – 1.1417 ( +73 or +0.64% )
The Euro has found some very important support last week with some interesting reversal bars on various charts.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 23:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
Fri 20:00 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Fri 20:00 – German Flash Services PMI
For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1453 this week. Should this occur we could see a quick move into 1.1496 before another pause. A strong break above 1.1496 could then result in a fast move back up to to 1.1613.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1453, we could see a fast move down into 1.1347. A break below level however could be followed by another sharp move down into 1.1249; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1197.
GBP/USD – 1.2824 ( -148 or -1.14% )
The Pound is is under severe pressure with plenty of news coming from Downing Street and rumours that Theresa May’s future is seriously questionable now. We will again be covering this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – Inflation Report Hearings
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3035, followed by a retest of 1.3161 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3191 and 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386.
On the downside, should we fail to close above 1.2868, we could see this market retest the key 1.2720 level. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2622; and if downside momentum remains strong we could see a quick drop into 1.2480.
USD/JPY – 112.83 ( -99 or -0.87% )
Last week we maintained the $US had an uphill battle from here, and the resulting picture is now very clear.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – BoJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 112.68. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 113.87 before another pause; with the potential for a quick move into 114.08.
If we cannot hold above 112.68, we are likely to see a move down into 111.73. A strong break and close below this level could result in a move back down to 111.09, and if momentum to the downside is very strong we may see a very sharp move down into 110.45.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1221 ( +12 or +0.99% )
GOLD has again found buyers and has all the makings for potentially higher prices this week again.
For a move higher we must see this market close above 1222. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1238. A close above this level may likely see a further move to the upside into 1247 before a pause. Should momentum remain very strong, we could see a fast move into 1260.
If Gold cannot close above 1222, we will look for a move back down into 1206. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a bigger move down into 1187, and if momentum to the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a sharp move into 1170.
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