This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7055 (-6 or -0.08%)
The ASX has closed in the middle of its 12 month range.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thur 09:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI
For a move higher, we would like to see the ASX close above 7055. Should this occur, a move above 7093 should be expected, and if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 7112 and 7196.
Failure to close above 7055 means a potential move into 6991. 6854 is the next support level down if 6775 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 6717.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 16032 (+95 or +0.6%)
The DAX has closed higher, locking its uptrend momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 21:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate
Thur 21:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
Thur 21:00 – EUR CPI
For the DAX to move higher, we would like to see it close above 16032. Should this occur, then 16306 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong, then 16427 and 16541 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 16032, we will look for a move into support at 15791. A strong break and close below this handle and 15600 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts, then 15396 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4564 (+47 or +1.04%)
The SPX500 has continued its up trend closing up another 1% this past week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD Good Trade Balance
Wed 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 4564. Should this occur, we will look for a move through 4614. And if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 4657 and 4700.
If we cannot hold above 4517, we could see this market move down into 4480 A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 44412. And if momentum to the downside remains strong, we may see a fast move back down to 4339.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6581 (+77 or +1.18%)
AUDUSD has broken above its resistance levels, will the momentum continue?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thur 09:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD Good Trade Balance
Wed 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial jobless Claims
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it hold above 0.6581. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6594. If we see a strong break and close above this level, then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6639. Should momentum to the upside be really strong, then 0.6676 could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6581 we could see a move down to 0.6550. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6485 however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6457.
EUR/USD – 1.0944 (+44 or +0.4%)
The EURUSD is following the current USDollar weakness. Will a reversal happen?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 21:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate
Thur 21:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
Thur 21:00 – EUR CPI
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD Good Trade Balance
Wed 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the Euro close above 1.0942. Should this occur, we should see a move above 1.1. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1018 and 1.1062.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.0900, we will see a move into 1.0805. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.0773, however, any weakness below this level could see a move into 1.0754.
GBP/USD – 1.2602 (+153 or +1.23%)
GBPUSD following the USDollar weakness.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD Good Trade Balance
Wed 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2600 before a break higher into 1.2659. If this market can see a strong close above this level, we may then see a strong pushback into 1.2724. If upside momentum is really strong, then a move back into 1.2724 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2600, we will look for a move down to 1.2579. A break below this level, however, could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2485 by the week’s end. And if momentum is very weak, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2433.
USD/JPY – 149.53 (-34 or -0.23%)
After hitting the yearly highs, the USDJPY has retreated slightly. Will the momentum continue?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD Good Trade Balance
Wed 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 149.53. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 150.13, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 151.89 and potentially 152.43.
If we cannot close above 149.53, we could see a move back to test 148.92 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 147.59, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 146.09.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2001 (+26 or +1.32%)
Gold has continued its uptrend, closing at previous highs.
For a move higher, we need to see this market close above 2000. Should this occur we could see a move into 2032; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 2066. If momentum is strong, then 2079 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 2000, we can see a move down to 1988 A break below this level could see a move lower into 1944 and if momentum is very strong to the downside, we could see a move to 1900.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 37402 (+125 or +0.34%)
Bitcoin has maintained its highs after a burst of bullish momentum. Will the bulls continue higher?
For a move higher, we must now see this market close above 38000. Should this occur, we could see a move into 39000 before retesting 40000. If the upside momentum is really strong, then we can’t rule out 41000.
Failure to close above 37000 could see a move into 36000. If selling pressure takes control, then we could see a move down to 35000. A close below this level and 30000 can’t be ruled out.
