Market Brief


Can gold continue to build momentum as traders price in softer rate expectations?

will a stronger US dollar limit further upside from here?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8854  (+17 or +0.19%)

The ASX edged higher this week with a modest +0.19% gain, showing mild bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment (AUD)

Wed 11:00 – RBA Hunter Speech (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – Building Permits MoM (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8876. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8898, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8920 and potentially 8965.

If we cannot close above 8832, we could see a move back to test 8810 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8788, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8743.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25843 (+847 or +3.39%)

The DAX surged higher this week with a strong +3.39% gain, showing powerful bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Mon 19:00 – Retail Sales YoY (EUR)

Thu 16:00 – Balance of Trade (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25908. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25972, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 26037 and potentially 26166.

If we cannot close above 25778, we could see a move back to test 25714 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25649, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 25520.

US

S&P 500 – 7507 (+27 or +0.36%)

The SPX pushed higher this week with a modest +0.36% gain, maintaining a mildly bullish trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7526. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7545, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7563 and potentially 7601.

If we cannot close above 7488, we could see a move back to test 7469 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7451, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7413.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.6934 (-75 or -1.07%)

The AUDUSD moved lower this week with a -1.07% decline, showing clear bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment (AUD)

Wed 11:00 – RBA Hunter Speech (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – Building Permits MoM (AUD) 

Tue 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6951. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6969, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6986 and potentially 0.7021.

If we cannot close above 0.6917, we could see a move back to test 0.6899 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6882, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6847.

EUR/USD – 1.1434 (-29 or -0.25%)

The EURUSD eased lower this week with a -0.25% move, reflecting mild bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 19:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Mon 19:00 – Retail Sales YoY (EUR)

Thu 16:00 – Balance of Trade (EUR) 

Tue 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1463. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1491, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1520 and potentially 1.1577.

If we cannot close above 1.1405, we could see a move back to test 1.1377 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1348, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1291.

GBP/USD – 1.3346 (+128 or +0.97%)

The GBPUSD climbed higher this week with a solid +0.97% gain, showing bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 16:00 – Halifax House Price Index MoM (GBP)

Tue 16:00 – Halifax House Price Index YoY (GBP)

Thu 09:01 – RICS House Price Balance (GBP) 

Tue 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3379. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3413, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3446 and potentially 1.3513.

If we cannot close above 1.3313, we could see a move back to test 1.3279 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3246, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3179.


USD/JPY – 161.70 (+19 or +0.12%)

The USDJPY edged higher this week with a modest +0.12% gain, showing mild bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 09:30 – Household Spending YoY (JPY)

Tue 09:30 – Household Spending MoM (JPY)

Wed 09:50 – Current Account (JPY) 

Tue 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 162.10. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 162.51, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 162.91 and potentially 163.72.

If we cannot close above 161.30, we could see a move back to test 160.89 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 160.49, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 159.68.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4195  (-1 or -0.02%)

Gold was broadly flat this week with a slight -0.02% move, showing neutral to mildly bearish momentum. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4205. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4216, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4226 and potentially 4247.

If we cannot close above 4185, we could see a move back to test 4174 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4164, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4143.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  63661 (-71 or -0.11%)

Bitcoin eased lower this week with a slight -0.11% decline, showing weak bearish momentum. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 63820. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 63979, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 64138 and potentially 64457.

If we cannot close above 63502, we could see a move back to test 63343 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 63184, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 62865.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.