This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7799 (-57 or -0.73%)
The AU200 chart is showing a strong upward trend with a significant move from 7586 to 7799 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7980. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8199, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8418 and potentially 8785.
If we cannot close above 7609, we could see a move back to test 7418 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7230, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6863.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18696 (-67 or -0.36%)
The DAX chart is showing a weak downward trend with a slight move from 18763 to 18696 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate
Fri 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18743. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18852, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18961 and potentially 19220.
If we cannot close above 18348, we could see a move back to test 18239 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18130, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 17871.
US
S&P 500 – 5305 (-11 or -0.21%)
The USD500 chart is showing a weak downward trend with a slight move from 5316 to 5305 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5320. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5335, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5350 and potentially 5371.
If we cannot close above 5280, we could see a move back to test 5260 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5240, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5219.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6636 (-63 or -0.94%)
The AUDUSD chart is showing a weak downward trend with a move from 0.6699 to 0.6636 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6653. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6670, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6687 and potentially 0.6720.
If we cannot close above 0.6615, we could see a move back to test 0.6600 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6583, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6550.
EUR/USD – 1.0848 (-23 or -0.21%)
The EURUSD chart is showing a weak downward trend with a slight move from 1.0871 to 1.0848 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate
Fri 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0875. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0901, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0924 and potentially 1.0980.
If we cannot close above 1.0821, we could see a move back to test 1.0796 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0772, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0720.
GBP/USD – 1.2742 (+38 or +0.3%)
The GBPUSD chart is showing a modest upward trend with a move from 1.2704 to 1.2742 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2773. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2801, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2828 and potentially 1.2878.
If we cannot close above 1.2720, we could see a move back to test 1.2695 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2667, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2617.
USD/JPY – 156.78 (+95 or +0.61%)
The USDJPY chart is showing a strong upward trend with a significant move from 155.83 to 156.78 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.17. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157.84, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.51 and potentially 159.63.
If we cannot close above 156.42, we could see a move back to test 155.71 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 155.04, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 153.92.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2343 (-74 or -3.06%)
The price of GOLD is showing a significant downward trend with a notable move from 2417 to 2343 this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2349. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2356, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2363 and potentially 2370.
If we cannot close above 2337, we could see a move back to test 2330 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2323, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2316.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 68753 (+2566 or +3.88%)
Bitcoin is displaying a strong upward trend with a significant move from 66187 to 68753 this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 68922. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 69114, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 69306 and potentially 69689.
If we cannot close above 68584, we could see a move back to test 68392 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 68199, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 67815.
