This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7061 (+106 or +1.52%)
The ASX has closed up for a second week in a row with a 1.5% gain.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thur 09:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI
For a move higher, we would like to see the ASX close above 7061. Should this occur, a move above 7093 should be expected, and if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 7112 and 7196.
Failure to close above 6955 means a potential move into 7061. 6991 is the next support level down if 6854 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 6775.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 15937 (+696 or +4.57%)
The DAX is up over 4% two weeks in a row, gaining momentum heading into the all time highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 09:00 – EUR HCOB Services PMI
Fri 23:00 – EUR Guindos Speech
For the DAX to move higher, we would like to see it close above 15937. Should this occur, then 16029 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong, then 16306 and 16427 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 15900, we will look for a move into support at 15791. A strong break and close below this handle and 15600 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts, then 15396 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4517 (+114 or +2.59%)
The SPX500 is up over 2%, will the momentum continue through the high?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 02:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
Wed 02:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thur 00:30 – USD Durable Goods
Thur 00:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 4517. Should this occur, we will look for a move through 4614. And if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 4657 and 4700.
If we cannot hold above 4517, we could see this market move down into 4480 A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 44412. And if momentum to the downside remains strong, we may see a fast move back down to 4339.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6504 (+143 or +2.25%)
AUDUSD is sitting at its upper resistance levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thur 09:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI
Wed 02:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
Wed 02:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thur 00:30 – USD Durable Goods
Thur 00:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it hold above 0.6504. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6550. If we see a strong break and close above this level, then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6594. Should momentum to the upside be really strong, then 0.6639 could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6504 we could see a move down to 0.6457. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6426 however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6377.
EUR/USD – 1.0900 (+213 or +1.99%)
The EURUSD is following the current USDollar weakness. Will a reversal happen?.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 09:00 – EUR HCOB Services PMI
Fri 23:00 – EUR Guindos Speech
Wed 02:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
Wed 02:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thur 00:30 – USD Durable Goods
Thur 00:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the Euro close above 1.0900. Should this occur, we should see a move above 1.1. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1018 and 1.1062.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.0900, we will see a move into 1.0805. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.0773, however, any weakness below this level could see a move into 1.0754.
GBP/USD – 1.2449 (+217 or +1.77%)
GBPUSD saw a big move during the news this past week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 02:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
Wed 02:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thur 00:30 – USD Durable Goods
Thur 00:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2449 before a break higher into 1.2540. If this market can see a strong close above this level, we may then see a strong pushback into 1.2579. If upside momentum is really strong, then a move back into 1.2659 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2449, we will look for a move down to 1.2346. A break below this level, however, could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2243 by the week’s end. And if momentum is very weak, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2176.
USD/JPY – 149.87 (-182 or -1.2%)
USDJPY was rejected from the highest high from last year. Will this level break?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 10:30 – JPY Inflation Rate
Wed 02:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
Wed 02:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thur 00:30 – USD Durable Goods
Thur 00:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 149.87. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 150.13, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 151.89 and potentially 152.43.
If we cannot close above 149.87, we could see a move back to test 148.92 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 147.59, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 146.09.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1975 (+41 or +2.12%)
For a move higher, we need to see this market close above 1975. Should this occur we could see a move into 2000; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 2032. If momentum is strong, then 2066 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1975, we can see a move down to 1944 A break below this level could see a move lower into 1900 and if momentum is very strong to the downside, we could see a move to 1882.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 37277 (+306 or +0.83%)
After an explosive move to the upside Bitcoin has maintained its highs.
For a move higher, we must now see this market close above 38000. Should this occur, we could see a move into 39000 before retesting 40000. If the upside momentum is really strong, then we can’t rule out 41000.
Failure to close above 37000 could see a move into 36000. If selling pressure takes control, then we could see a move down to 35000. A close below this level and 30000 can’t be ruled out.
