Market Brief


Is improving global risk sentiment now driving stronger capital flows back into crypto markets and supporting Bitcoin’s recent upward momentum?

Could sustained bullish momentum and stabilising equity markets push Bitcoin into a larger breakout phase with continued upside potential?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8733 (-212 or -2.37%)

The ASX moved lower this week, falling -2.37% and showing clear bearish pressure compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8755. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8777, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8798 and potentially 8842.

If we cannot close above 8711, we could see a move back to test 8689 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8668, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8624.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24146 (-284 or -1.16%)

The DAX moved lower this week, falling -1.16% and showing bearish pressure compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)

Thu 22:45 – ECB Press Conference (EUR)

Thu 19:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24206. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24267, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24327 and potentially 24448.

If we cannot close above 24086, we could see a move back to test 24025 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23965, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23844.

US

S&P 500 – 7148 (+66 or +0.93%)

The SPX pushed higher this week, gaining +0.93% and showing steady bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7166. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7184, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7202 and potentially 7237.

If we cannot close above 7130, we could see a move back to test 7112 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7094, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7059.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7146 (-5 or -0.07%)

AUDUSD edged lower this week, slipping -0.07% and showing mild downside pressure compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (AUD)

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7164. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7182, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7200 and potentially 0.7235.

If we cannot close above 0.7128, we could see a move back to test 0.7110 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7092, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7057.

EUR/USD – 1.1711 (-42 or -0.36%)

EURUSD moved lower this week, falling -0.36% and showing bearish pressure compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 22:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)

Thu 22:45 – ECB Press Conference (EUR)

Thu 19:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1740. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1770, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1799 and potentially 1.1857.

If we cannot close above 1.1682, we could see a move back to test 1.1652 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1623, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1565.

GBP/USD – 1.3515 (+23 or +0.17%)

GBPUSD moved higher this week, gaining +0.17% and showing slight bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 21:00 – BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP)

Thu 21:00 – BoE Monetary Policy Report (GBP)

Fri 18:30 – Mortgage Approvals (GBP)

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3549. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3583, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3616 and potentially 1.3684.

If we cannot close above 1.3481, we could see a move back to test 1.3447 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3414, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3346.


USD/JPY – 159.50 (+54 or +0.34%)

USDJPY moved higher this week, gaining +0.34% and showing steady bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 13:00 – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY)

Tue 10:00 – BoJ Gov Ueda Speech (JPY)

Thu 15:00 – Consumer Confidence (JPY)

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 159.90. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 160.30, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160.70 and potentially 161.49.

If we cannot close above 159.10, we could see a move back to test 158.70 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 158.30, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 157.51.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4680 (-114 or -2.38%)

Gold moved lower this week, falling -2.38% and showing clear bearish pressure compared to last week.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4692. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4703, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4715 and potentially 4739.

If we cannot close above 4668, we could see a move back to test 4657 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4645, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4622.downside may see a bigger move into 4734.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  78352 (+4101 or +5.52%)

BTC surged higher this week, gaining +5.52% and showing strong bullish momentum compared to last week.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 78548. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 78744, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 78940 and potentially 79331.

If we cannot close above 78156, we could see a move back to test 77960 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 77764, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 77373.

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