Market Brief


Could Bitcoin’s recent sharp decline signal the beginning of a broader risk-off phase, reflecting tightening liquidity, or shifts in global macroeconomic conditions?

Are investors actively repositioning their portfolios, and what does the growing divergence between traditional assets and digital assets suggest about changing risk perceptions and market behavior?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8832 (+27 or +0.31%)

The ASX pushed modestly higher this week, maintaining a steady bullish bias with mild upward momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD)
Wed 11:30 – Home Loans QoQ (AUD)


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8854. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8876, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8898 and potentially 8943.
If we cannot close above 8810, we could see a move back to test 8788 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8766, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8721.

EUROPE

DAX (30) –24846 (+332 or +1.35%)

The DAX surged strongly higher this week, posting a powerful bullish move and showing strong upside momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 03:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR)
Fri 21:00 – Employment Change QoQ (EUR)
Fri 21:00 – ECB Guindos Speech (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24908. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24970, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25032 and potentially 25157.
If we cannot close above 24784, we could see a move back to test 24722 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24660, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24535.

US

S&P 500 – 6948 (+15 or +0.22%)

The SPX edged higher this week, continuing its gradual bullish trend with steady upward momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)
Thu 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)
Sat 00:30 – CPI Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6965. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6983, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7000 and potentially 7035.
If we cannot close above 6931, we could see a move back to test 6913 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6896, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6861.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7025 (+76 or +1.09%)

AUDUSD advanced firmly this week, showing clear bullish momentum and a strong upside continuation.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD)
Wed 11:30 – Home Loans QoQ (AUD)
Wed 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)
Thu 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)
Sat 00:30 – CPI Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7042. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7060, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7077 and potentially 0.7113.
If we cannot close above 0.7008, we could see a move back to test 0.6990 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6973, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6937.

EUR/USD – 1.1810 (-40 or -0.34%)

EURUSD moved lower this week, maintaining bearish pressure and showing continued downside momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 03:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR)
Fri 21:00 – Employment Change QoQ (EUR)
Fri 21:00 – ECB Guindos Speech (EUR)
Wed 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)
Thu 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)
Sat 00:30 – CPI Inflation Rate YoY (USD)


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1840. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1870, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1899 and potentially 1.1958.
If we cannot close above 1.1780, we could see a move back to test 1.1751 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1722, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1663.

GBP/USD – 1.3591 (-94 or -0.69%)

GBPUSD declined sharply this week, reinforcing bearish momentum and continued downside pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (GBP)
Thu 18:00 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (GBP)
Thu 18:00 – GDP Growth Rate YoY (GBP)
Wed 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)
Thu 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)
Sat 00:30 – CPI Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3625. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3660, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3695 and potentially 1.3761.
If we cannot close above 1.3557, we could see a move back to test 1.3523 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3489, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3423.


USD/JPY – 157.63 (+231 or +1.49%)

USDJPY rallied strongly this week, showing decisive bullish momentum and a powerful upside breakout.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 10:50 – Current Account (JPY)
Mon 19:00 – USDJPY Sentiment (JPY)
Mon 10:50 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (JPY) (Feb 16)
Wed 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)
Thu 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)
Sat 00:30 – CPI Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.02. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.42, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.82 and potentially 159.60.
If we cannot close above 157.24, we could see a move back to test 156.84 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.44, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.66.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4980 (+105 or +2.15%)

Gold surged higher this week, delivering strong bullish momentum and renewed upside strength.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4992. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5005, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5017 and potentially 5042.
If we cannot close above 4968, we could see a move back to test 4955 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4943, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4918.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 71305 (-6023 or -7.79%)

Bitcoin sold off aggressively this week, showing strong bearish momentum and increasing downside pressure.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 71483. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 71761, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 72039 and potentially 72896.
If we cannot close above 71127, we could see a move back to test 70849 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 70571, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 69714.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.