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Market Brief


AUD/USD Holds Ground as Traders Weigh Fed’s Next Move

US Dollar Struggles After Softer CPI

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 7838 (-130 or -1.63%)

AU200 is trending downward, dropping 130 points this week. A significant decline, indicating weakness or a potential market correction.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:20 – AUD RBA Hunter Speech

Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Feb)

Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Feb)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7857. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7877, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7896 and potentially 7936.

If we cannot close above 7819, we could see a move back to test 7799 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7780, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7740.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 23045 (-31 or -0.13%)

DAX is slightly down, dropping 31 points this week. A minor move, suggesting consolidation or low volatility rather than a strong trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 21:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Mar)

Wed 21:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Feb)

Fri 19:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23102. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23160, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23217 and potentially 23334.

If we cannot close above 22988, we could see a move back to test 22931 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 22873, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 22756.

US

S&P 500 – 5607 (-119 or -2.08%)

US500 is trending downward, dropping 119 points this week. A notable decline, signaling weakness and potential further downside if momentum persists.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 23:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Feb)

Thu 05:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thu 23:30 – USD Jobless Claims (Mar/15)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5621. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5635, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5648 and potentially 5677.

If we cannot close above 5593, we could see a move back to test 5579 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5565, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5535.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6228 (-95 or -1.5%)

AUD/USD is trending downward, dropping 95 pips this week. A significant move, indicating weakness and potential further downside if selling pressure continues.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:20 – AUD RBA Hunter Speech

Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Feb)

Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Feb)

Tue 23:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Feb)

Thu 05:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thu 23:30 – USD Jobless Claims (Mar/15)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6244. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6259, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6274 and potentially 0.6305.

If we cannot close above 0.6212, we could see a move back to test 0.6197 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6182, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6151.

EUR/USD – 1.0882 (+79 or +0.73%)

EUR/USD is trending upward, gaining 79 pips this week. A solid move, signaling strength and potential for further bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 21:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Mar)

Wed 21:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Feb)

Fri 19:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

Tue 23:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Feb)

Thu 05:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thu 23:30 – USD Jobless Claims (Mar/15)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0909. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0934, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0959 and potentially 1.1018.
If we cannot close above 1.0854, we could see a move back to test 1.0829 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0804, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0745.

GBP/USD – 1.2935 (+56 or +0.43%)

GBP/USD is trending upward, gaining 56 pips this week. A steady move, indicating strength and potential for continued bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 18:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate (Jan)

Thu 18:00 – GBP Employment Change (Jan)

Fri 20:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

Tue 23:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Feb)

Thu 05:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thu 23:30 – USD Jobless Claims (Mar/15)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2968. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3001, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3034 and potentially 1.3097.
If we cannot close above 1.2902, we could see a move back to test 1.2869 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2836, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2773.

USD/JPY – 148.87 (+93 or +0.63%)

USD/JPY is trending upward, gaining 93 pips this week. A solid move, indicating strength and potential for continued bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 10:50 – JPY Balance of Trade (Feb)

Wed 14:00 – JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision

Fri 10:30 – JPY Inflation Rate YoY (Feb)

Tue 23:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Feb)

Thu 05:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thu 23:30 – USD Jobless Claims (Mar/15)


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 149.24. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 149.61, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 149.98 and potentially 150.74.
If we cannot close above 148.50, we could see a move back to test 148.13 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 147.76, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 147.00.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 2985 (+74 or +2.54%)

Gold is surging upward, gaining 74 points this week. A strong move, signaling bullish momentum and potential for further upside.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2992. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2999, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3006 and potentially 3022.
If we cannot close above 2978, we could see a move back to test 2971 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2964, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2948.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 83633 (+860 or +1.04%)

Bitcoin is rallying upward, gaining 860 points this week. A strong move, indicating bullish momentum and potential for further upside.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 83842. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 84051, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 84260 and potentially 84678.

If we cannot close above 83424, we could see a move back to test 83215 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 83006, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 82588.

DISCLAIMER

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