This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8217 (-72 or -0.87%)
AU200 is trending lower with a moderate decline from 8289 to 8217, signalling a weak bearish movement this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Jan)
Wed 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8237. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8258, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8279 and potentially 8320.
If we cannot close above 8197, we could see a move back to test 8176 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8155, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8114.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 22647 (+325 or +1.46%)
The DAX30 is trending higher with a moderate upward move, showing strength as it gains 325 points this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Mon 19:30 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Feb)
Wed 19:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Feb)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5982. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5996, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6011 and potentially 6041.
If we cannot close above 5952, we could see a move back to test 5937 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5922, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5892.
US
S&P 500 – 5967 (-75 or -1.24%)
The US500 is trending lower with a moderate pullback, signalling some weakness. A stronger decline could indicate further downside risk.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Tue 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Wed 06:20 – USD Fed Williams Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5982. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5996, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6011 and potentially 6041.
If we cannot close above 5952, we could see a move back to test 5937 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5922, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5892.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6219 (-154 or -2.42%)
AUDUSD is trending lower with a significant drop, signalling weakness. The move suggests strong bearish momentum, testing key support levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Jan)
Wed 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Tue 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Wed 06:20 – USD Fed Williams Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6235. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6249, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6264 and potentially 0.6297.
If we cannot close above 0.6203, we could see a move back to test 0.6188 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6173, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6137.
EUR/USD – 1.0416 (-78 or -0.74%)
EURUSD is trending lower with a steady decline, showing weakness. Bearish momentum is building, suggesting further downside potential if support breaks.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Mon 19:30 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Feb)
Wed 19:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Feb)
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Tue 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Wed 06:20 – USD Fed Williams Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0442. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0467, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0492 and potentially 1.0546.
If we cannot close above 1.0390, we could see a move back to test 1.0365 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0340, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0286.
GBP/USD – 1.2601 (-61 or -0.48%)
The GBPUSD is showing a weak bearish trend with a moderate move, dropping from 1.2662 to 1.2601.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Tue 20:00 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Tue 21:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate (Jan)
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Tue 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Wed 06:20 – USD Fed Williams Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2631. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2651, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2676 and potentially 1.2736.
If we cannot close above 1.2576, we could see a move back to test 1.2551 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2526, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2476.
USD/JPY – 150.99 (+196 or +1.32%)
The USDJPY is strongly bullish, surging by 1.96, indicating significant upward momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – JPY Unemployment Rate (Jan)
Tue 16:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (Feb)
Wed 11:30 – JPY Jibun Bank Services PMI (Feb)
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Tue 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Wed 06:20 – USD Fed Williams Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 151.79. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 152.59, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 153.39 and potentially 154.86.
If we cannot close above 150.19, we could see a move back to test 149.39 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 148.59, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 147.12.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2871 (-63 or -2.15%)
Gold shows a strong bearish trend, dropping significantly from 2934 to 2871, indicating a notable move to the downside.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2884. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2900, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2916 and potentially 2942.
If we cannot close above 2858, we could see a move back to test 2842 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2826, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2799.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 94096 (-2243 or -2.33%)
Bitcoin shows a weak downward trend with a moderate move, slipping from 96,339 to 94,096 this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 94,369. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 94,642, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 94,915 and potentially 95,377.
If we cannot close above 94,219, we could see a move back to test 93,846 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 93,573, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 93,11.
