This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8289 (-216 or -2.54%)
AU200 is trending lower with a significant drop from 8505 to 8289, signalling strong bearish momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Jan)
Wed 11:30 – AUD Construction Work Done QoQ (Q4)
Tue 13:45 – AUD RBA Jones Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8309. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8330, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8351 and potentially 8389.
If we cannot close above 8269, we could see a move back to test 8248 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8227, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8189.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 22322 (-212 or -0.94%)
The DAX is trending lower with a moderate decline, signalling weakness. A deeper drop could indicate increasing bearish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Feb)
Tue 18:00 – EUR GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4)
Wed 18:00 – EUR GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 22378. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 22433, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 22489 and potentially 22599.
If we cannot close above 22266, we could see a move back to test 22211 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 22155, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 22045.
US
S&P 500 -6042 (-77 or -1.26%)
The US500 is trending lower with a moderate decline, signalling weakness. A further drop could confirm increased selling pressure.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Jan)
Fri 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
Fri 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jan)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6057. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6072, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6087 and potentially 6117.
If we cannot close above 6027, we could see a move back to test 6012 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5997, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5967.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6373 (+13 or +0.2%)
AUD/USD is showing a slight upward move, but the momentum remains weak. A stronger push is needed for a clearer trend shift.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Jan)
Wed 11:30 – AUD Construction Work Done QoQ (Q4)
Tue 13:45 – AUD RBA Jones Speech
Thu 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Jan)
Fri 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
Fri 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jan)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6389. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6405, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6420 and potentially 0.6452.
If we cannot close above 0.6356, we could see a move back to test 0.6340 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6325, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6293.
EUR/USD – 1.0494 (-6 or -0.06%)
EURUSD is trending slightly lower with a weak downside move. The decline is minimal, showing limited bearish momentum for now.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Feb)
Tue 18:00 – EUR GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4)
Wed 18:00 – EUR GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar)
Thu 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Jan)
Fri 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
Fri 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jan)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0517. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0544, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0569 and potentially 1.0618.
If we cannot close above 1.0470, we could see a move back to test 1.0443 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0418, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0369.
GBP/USD – 1.2662 (+68 or +0.54%)
The GBPUSD is trending strongly upward with a notable move of 0.0068, signaling bullish momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 05:00 – GBP BoE Dhingra Speech
Wed 01:00 – GBP BoE Pill Speech
Thu 03:30 – GBP BoE Dhingra Speech
Thu 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Jan)
Fri 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
Fri 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jan)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2685. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2711, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2737 and potentially 1.2783.
If we cannot close above 1.2637, we could see a move back to test 1.2601 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2575, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2541.
USD/JPY – 149.03 (-277 or -1.82%)
The USDJPY has experienced a strong bearish move, dropping significantly from 151.80 to 149.03—indicating notable weakness.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Jan)
Fri 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
Fri 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jan)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 149.52. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 150.05, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 150.57 and potentially 151.88.
If we cannot close above 148.51, we could see a move back to test 148.00 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 147.48, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 146.18.
COMMODITIES
GOLD –2934 (+40 or +1.38%)
Gold is trending strongly upward with a solid move of 40 points, indicating significant bullish momentum this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2956. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2989, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3012 and potentially 3086.
If we cannot close above 2956, we could see a move back to test 2903 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2879, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2844.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 96339 (-28 or -0.03%)
The Bitcoin chart is showing a weak, minor decline with little movement, indicating a consolidation or slow downtrend.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 96,438. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 96,537, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 96,635 and potentially 96,803.
If we cannot close above 96,240, we could see a move back to test 96,140 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 96,042, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 95,874.
