Market Brief


ASX nears historic peak as Gold and Bitcoin rally

Strong gains across equities, gold, and crypto suggest growing investor optimism, but can this momentum sustain amid shifting global policy and data risks? Could this broad rally be setting the stage for a larger volatility spike ahead?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 9025 (+217 or +2.46%)

The ASX surged higher this week with a solid +2.46% gain, showing continued strength and bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Oct)

Fri 08:00 – AUD RBA Bullock Speech

Fri 08:00 – AUD RBA Kent Speech

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 9047. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 9070, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9092 and potentially 9138.

If we cannot close above 9002, we could see a move back to test 8980 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8957, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8912.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24426 (+652 or +2.74%)

The DAX rallied strongly, gaining +2.74%, extending its upward trend and confirming strong bullish continuation this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 17:15 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech

Mon 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (Aug)

Thu 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (Aug)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24487. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24548, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24609 and potentially 24731.

If we cannot close above 24365, we could see a move back to test 24304 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24243, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24121.

US

S&P 500 – 6725 (+74 or +1.11%)

The SPX moved higher by +1.11%, maintaining steady bullish momentum and showing a continuation of its positive market structure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 05:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/04)

Sat 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6741. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6758, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6775 and potentially 6808.

If we cannot close above 6708, we could see a move back to test 6691 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6674, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6641.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6590 (+40 or +0.61%)

AUDUSD advanced +0.61%, showing mild bullish movement and steady recovery from prior consolidation.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Oct)

Fri 08:00 – AUD RBA Bullock Speech

Fri 08:00 – AUD RBA Kent Speech

Thu 05:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/04)

Sat 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6606. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6623, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6640 and potentially 0.6672.

If we cannot close above 0.6573, we could see a move back to test 0.6556 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6539, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6507.

EUR/USD – 1.1718 (+12 or +0.1%)

EURUSD posted a small +0.10% rise, suggesting limited upside momentum but maintaining its range-bound structure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 17:15 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech

Mon 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (Aug)

Thu 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (Aug)

Thu 05:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/04)

Sat 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1747. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1773, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1799 and potentially 1.1864.

If we cannot close above 1.1690, we could see a move back to test 1.1663 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1637, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1572.

GBP/USD – 1.3431 (+21 or +0.16%)

GBPUSD edged higher by +0.16%, signaling cautious bullish sentiment but no strong directional breakout yet.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Construction PMI (Sep)

Tue 03:30 – GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech

Thu 09:01 – GBP RICS House Price Balance (Sep)

Thu 05:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/04)

Sat 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3464. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3498, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3532 and potentially 1.3599.

If we cannot close above 1.3397, we could see a move back to test 1.3364 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3330, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3263.

USD/JPY – 149.27 (-8 or -0.05%)

USDJPY slipped slightly -0.05%, indicating a mild pullback but still holding near recent highs in a tight range.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 09:30 – JPY Household Spending YoY (Aug)

Tue 09:30 – JPY Household Spending MoM (Aug)

Wed 09:50 – JPY Current Account (Aug)

Thu 05:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/04)

Sat 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 149.64. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 150.02, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 150.39 and potentially 151.15.

If we cannot close above 148.90, we could see a move back to test 148.53 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 148.15, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 147.39.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 3892 (+123 or +3.26%)

Gold climbed +3.26%, showing strong bullish momentum and renewed safe-haven demand.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3902. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3912, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3921 and potentially 3941.

If we cannot close above 3882, we could see a move back to test 3872 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3863, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3843.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 122831 (+10844 or +9.68%)

Bitcoin surged +9.68%, leading the market higher with powerful bullish momentum and renewed investor enthusiasm.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 123138. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 123446, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 123753 and potentially 124369.

If we cannot close above 122523, we could see a move back to test 122216 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 121908, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 121292.

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