Market Brief


Can softer US jobs data keep the SPX and ASX moving higher as traders scale back expectations for further Fed tightening?

Will easing rate expectations weaken the USD enough to support a stronger recovery in Gold and Bitcoin?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8704  (+23 or +0.26% )

The ASX moved higher this week, gaining +0.26% and maintaining a modest bullish trend compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 09:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (AUD)

Wed 08:00 – Ai Group Industry Index (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8726. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8748, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8769 and potentially 8813.

If we cannot close above 8682, we could see a move back to test 8660 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8639, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8595.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25288 (-191 or -0.75%)

The DAX moved lower this week, falling -0.75% and showing clear bearish pressure compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – Retail Sales YoY (EUR)

Thu 16:00 – Balance of Trade (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25351. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25414, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25478 and potentially 25604.

If we cannot close above 25225, we could see a move back to test 25162 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25098, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24972.

US

S&P 500 –   7735  (+10 or +0.13%)

The SPX edged higher this week, gaining +0.13% and maintaining mild bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7754. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7774, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7793 and potentially 7832.

If we cannot close above 7716, we could see a move back to test 7696 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7677, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7638.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.6954 (-65 or -0.93%)

The AUDUSD moved lower this week, falling -0.93% and showing clear bearish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 09:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (AUD)

Wed 08:00 – Ai Group Industry Index (AUD)

Tue 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6971. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6989, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7006 and potentially 0.7041.

If we cannot close above 0.6937, we could see a move back to test 0.6919 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6902, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6867.

EUR/USD –  1.1242 (-142 or -1.25%)

The EURUSD declined this week, dropping -1.25% and showing strong bearish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 19:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – Retail Sales YoY (EUR)

Thu 16:00 – Balance of Trade (EUR)

Tue 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1270. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1298, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1326 and potentially 1.1383.

If we cannot close above 1.1214, we could see a move back to test 1.1186 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1158, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1101.

GBP/USD –  1.3237 (-1 or -0.01%)

The GBPUSD was nearly unchanged this week, slipping -0.01% and showing largely neutral price action.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 16:00 – Lloyds House Price Index YoY (GBP)

Wed 16:00 – Lloyds House Price Index MoM (GBP)

Thu 09:01 – RICS House Price Balance (GBP)

Tue 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3270. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3303, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3336 and potentially 1.3402.

If we cannot close above 1.3204, we could see a move back to test 1.3171 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3138, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3072.


USD/JPY –  157.75 (-2 or -0.01%)

The USDJPY was almost unchanged this week, falling -0.01% and showing largely sideways price action.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 15:00 – Consumer Confidence (JPY)

Tue 16:35 – BoJ Gov Ueda Speech (JPY)

Thu 09:50 – Current Account (JPY)

Tue 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.14. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.54, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.93 and potentially 159.72.

If we cannot close above 157.36, we could see a move back to test 156.96 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.57, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.78.

COMMODITIES

GOLD –  4154  (-58 or -1.38%)

Gold moved lower this week, falling -1.38% and showing clear bearish momentum compared with last week.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4164. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4175, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4185 and potentially 4206.

If we cannot close above 4144, we could see a move back to test 4133 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4123, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4102.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  86562 (+2744 or +3.27%)

Bitcoin surged higher this week, gaining +3.27% and showing strong bullish momentum compared with last week.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 86778. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 86995, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 87211 and potentially 87644.

If we cannot close above 86346, we could see a move back to test 86129 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 85913, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 85480.

DISCLAIMER

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