Market Brief


Can Bitcoin build on its strong recovery and maintain momentum above the $81K level?

Could a sustained breakout attract further buying and open the door to higher resistance levels?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8703  (-52 or -0.59%)

The ASX moved lower this week, slipping -0.59% and showing mild bearish pressure versus last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – RBA Hunter Speech (AUD)

Thu 01:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thu 01:30 – Employment Change (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8725. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8747, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8768 and potentially 8812.

If we cannot close above 8681, we could see a move back to test 8659 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8638, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8594.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25372 (-146 or -0.57%)

The DAX eased lower this week, down -0.57% and continuing to trade with mild bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:00 – Consumer Confidence (EUR)

Thu 08:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR)

Fri 06:00 – GfK Consumer Confidence (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25435. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25499, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25562 and potentially 25689.

If we cannot close above 25309, we could see a move back to test 25245 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25182, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 25055.

US

S&P 500 –  7670  (+43 or +0.56%)

The SPX pushed higher this week, gaining +0.56% and maintaining a constructive bullish tone.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 12:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 12:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 12:30 – Durable Goods Orders MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7689. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7708, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7728 and potentially 7766.

If we cannot close above 7651, we could see a move back to test 7632 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7612, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7574.

FOREX

AUD/USD –    0.7127 (-17 or -0.24%)

AUDUSD edged lower this week, falling -0.24% and showing a slight bearish bias.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – RBA Hunter Speech (AUD)

Thu 01:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thu 01:30 – Employment Change (AUD) 

Tue 12:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 12:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 12:30 – Durable Goods Orders MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7145. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7163, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7180 and potentially 0.7216.

If we cannot close above 0.7109, we could see a move back to test 0.7091 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7074, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7038.

EUR/USD –  1.1483 (-104 or -0.9%)

EURUSD weakened this week, dropping -0.90% and reflecting clear bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 14:00 – Consumer Confidence (EUR)

Thu 08:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR)

Fri 06:00 – GfK Consumer Confidence (EUR) 

Tue 12:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 12:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 12:30 – Durable Goods Orders MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1512. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1540, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1569 and potentially 1.1627.

If we cannot close above 1.1454, we could see a move back to test 1.1426 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1397, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1339.

GBP/USD –  1.3390 (-126 or -0.93%)

GBPUSD moved lower this week, declining -0.93% and maintaining firm bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:00 – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (GBP)

Thu 10:00 – CBI Distributive Trades (GBP)

Thu 23:01 – GfK Consumer Confidence (GBP) 

Tue 12:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 12:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 12:30 – Durable Goods Orders MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3423. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3457, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3490 and potentially 1.3557.

If we cannot close above 1.3357, we could see a move back to test 1.3323 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3290, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3223.


USD/JPY –  156.72 (+301 or +1.96%)

USDJPY surged higher this week, rallying +1.96% and showing strong bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 08:00 – Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment (JPY)

Fri 03:35 – 3-Month Bill Auction (JPY)

Sun 23:50 – BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY) 

Tue 12:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 12:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 12:30 – Durable Goods Orders MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.11. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157.50, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 157.90 and potentially 158.68.

If we cannot close above 156.33, we could see a move back to test 155.94 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 155.54, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 154.76.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4365  (+20 or +0.46%)

Gold edged higher this week, gaining +0.46% and holding a modest bullish tone. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4376. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4387, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4398 and potentially 4420.

If we cannot close above 4354, we could see a move back to test 4343 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4332, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4310.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  81651 (+4884 or +6.36%)

BTC surged higher this week, jumping +6.36% and showing very strong bullish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 81855. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 82059, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 82263 and potentially 82672.

If we cannot close above 81447, we could see a move back to test 81243 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 81039, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 80630.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.