Market Brief


Can Bitcoin extend its bullish momentum?

Could Gold rebound if geopolitical uncertainty continues?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 9036  (-67 or -0.74%)

The ASX moved lower this week, falling -0.74% and showing moderate bearish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (AUD)

Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 9059. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 9081, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9104 and potentially 9149.

If we cannot close above 9013, we could see a move back to test 8991 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8968, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8923.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 26022 (-445 or -1.68%)

The DAX declined sharply this week, falling -1.68% and showing strong bearish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)

Thu 22:15 – Deposit Facility Rate (EUR)

Thu 22:45 – ECB Press Conference (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 26087. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 26152, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 26217 and potentially 26347.

If we cannot close above 25957, we could see a move back to test 25892 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25827, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 25697.

US

S&P 500 –  7712  (+35 or +0.46%)

The SPX moved higher this week with a +0.46% gain, showing moderate bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7731. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7751, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7770 and potentially 7808.

If we cannot close above 7693, we could see a move back to test 7673 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7654, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7616.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.7207 (+47 or +0.66%)

AUDUSD moved higher this week with a +0.66% gain, showing continued strength and positive momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (AUD)

Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD) 

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7225. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7243, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7261 and potentially 0.7297.

If we cannot close above 0.7189, we could see a move back to test 0.7171 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7153, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7117.

EUR/USD –  1.1616 (+26 or +0.22%)

EURUSD edged higher this week with a +0.22% gain, showing mild bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 22:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)

Thu 22:15 – Deposit Facility Rate (EUR)

Thu 22:45 – ECB Press Conference (EUR) 

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1645. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1674, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1703 and potentially 1.1761.

If we cannot close above 1.1587, we could see a move back to test 1.1558 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1529, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1471.

GBP/USD –  1.3518 (-23 or -0.17%)

GBPUSD edged lower this week, declining -0.17% and showing mild bearish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 09:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Goods Trade Balance (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – GDP MoM (GBP) 

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3552. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3586, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3619 and potentially 1.3687.

If we cannot close above 1.3484, we could see a move back to test 1.3450 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3417, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3349.


USD/JPY –  156.01 (-383 or -2.4%)

USDJPY fell sharply this week, declining -2.40% and showing strong bearish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 09:50 – Current Account (JPY)

Tue 09:50 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (JPY)

Tue 09:50 – GDP Growth Annualized (JPY) 

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 156.40. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 156.79, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 157.18 and potentially 157.96.

If we cannot close above 155.62, we could see a move back to test 155.23 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 154.84, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 154.06.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4425  (-12 or -0.27%)

Gold edged lower this week, falling -0.27% and showing mild bearish momentum compared to last week.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4436. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4447, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4458 and potentially 4480.

If we cannot close above 4414, we could see a move back to test 4403 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4392, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4370.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  80115 (+2488 or +3.21%)

Bitcoin surged higher this week with a strong +3.21% gain, showing clear bullish momentum compared to last week. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 80315. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 80516, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 80716 and potentially 81116.

If we cannot close above 79915, we could see a move back to test 79714 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 79514, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 79114.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.