Market Brief


Can gold continue its strong upside momentum?

Or will this week’s US inflation data slow the rally?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –   9229  (+266 or +2.97%)

The ASX surged higher this week with a strong +2.97% gain, showing clear bullish momentum and continued strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD)

Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Tue 15:30 – RBA Press Conference (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 9252. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 9275, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9298 and potentially 9344.

If we cannot close above 9206, we could see a move back to test 9183 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 9160, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 9114.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 26287  (+442 or +1.71%)

The DAX moved higher this week with a solid +1.71% gain, maintaining bullish momentum and positive market direction.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 19:00 – Industrial Production MoM (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – Employment Change YoY (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – Employment Change QoQ (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 26353. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 26418, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 26484 and potentially 26616.

If we cannot close above 26221, we could see a move back to test 26156 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 26090, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 25958.

US

S&P 500 –  7746  (+222 or +2.95%)

The SPX surged higher this week with a strong +2.95% gain, showing clear bullish momentum and continued upside strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate / CPI (USD)

Thu 22:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7765. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7785, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7804 and potentially 7843.

If we cannot close above 7727, we could see a move back to test 7707 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7688, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7649.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.7061 (+21 or +0.3%)

AUDUSD edged higher this week with a +0.30% gain, showing modest bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD)

Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Tue 15:30 – RBA Press Conference (AUD) 

Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate / CPI (USD)

Thu 22:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7079. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7096, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7114 and potentially 0.7149.

If we cannot close above 0.7043, we could see a move back to test 0.7026 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7008, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6973.

EUR/USD –  1.1554 (+13 or +0.11%)

EURUSD moved slightly higher this week with a +0.11% gain, showing limited bullish momentum and mostly steady price action.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 19:00 – Industrial Production MoM (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – Employment Change YoY (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – Employment Change QoQ (EUR)  

Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate / CPI (USD)

Thu 22:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1583. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1612, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1641 and potentially 1.1698.

If we cannot close above 1.1525, we could see a move back to test 1.1496 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1467, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1410.

GBP/USD – 1.3487 (+2 or +0.01%)

GBPUSD remained almost unchanged this week with a +0.01% move, showing flat momentum and limited directional strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 16:00 – GDP MoM (GBP)

Thu 16:00 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (GBP)

Thu 16:00 – GDP Growth Rate YoY (GBP) 

Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate / CPI (USD)

Thu 22:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3521. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3554, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3588 and potentially 1.3656.

If we cannot close above 1.3453, we could see a move back to test 1.3420 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3386, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3318.


USD/JPY –  158.10 (+198 or +1.27%)

USDJPY pushed higher this week with a +1.27% gain, showing continued bullish momentum and strengthening upside direction.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 09:50 – Current Account (JPY)

Mon 09:50 – BoJ Summary of Opinions (JPY)

Thu 09:50 – PPI YoY (JPY) 

Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate / CPI (USD)

Thu 22:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.50. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.89, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 159.29 and potentially 160.08.

If we cannot close above 157.70, we could see a move back to test 157.31 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.91, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 156.12.

COMMODITIES

GOLD –4323  (+267 or +6.58%)

Gold surged strongly higher this week with a powerful +6.58% gain, showing significant bullish momentum and strong upside strength. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4334. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4345, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4355 and potentially 4377.

If we cannot close above 4312, we could see a move back to test 4301 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4291, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4269.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  64916 (+1727 or +2.73%)

Bitcoin moved higher this week with a strong +2.73% gain, showing renewed bullish momentum and positive upside direction. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 65078. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 65241, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 65403 and potentially 65727.

If we cannot close above 64754, we could see a move back to test 64591 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 64429, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 64105.

DISCLAIMER

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