Market Brief


Can improving risk sentiment extend the equity rally?

Or will central-bank uncertainty limit further gains?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –   8837 (+38 or +0.43%)

The ASX moved higher this week, gaining +0.43% and maintaining steady bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8859. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8881, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8903 and potentially 8947.

If we cannot close above 8815, we could see a move back to test 8793 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8771, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8727.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25185 (+357 or +1.44% )

The DAX surged higher this week with a strong +1.44% gain, showing clear bullish momentum and continued market strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR)

Thu 19:00 – Unemployment Rate (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25248. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25311, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25374 and potentially 25500.

If we cannot close above 25122, we could see a move back to test 25059 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24996, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24870.

US

S&P 500 –  7454 (-10 or -0.13%)

The SPX edged lower this week, falling -0.13% and showing mild bearish pressure with limited downside momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7473. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7491, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7510 and potentially 7547.

If we cannot close above 7435, we could see a move back to test 7417 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7398, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7361.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.6997 (+15 or +0.21%)

AUDUSD moved higher this week, gaining +0.21% and showing modest bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7014. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7032, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7049 and potentially 0.7084.

If we cannot close above 0.6980, we could see a move back to test 0.6962 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6945, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6910.

EUR/USD – 1.1406 (-24 or -0.21%)

EURUSD declined this week, falling -0.21% and showing modest bearish momentum as sellers maintained control.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR)

Thu 19:00 – Unemployment Rate (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1435. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1463, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1492 and potentially 1.1549.

If we cannot close above 1.1377, we could see a move back to test 1.1349 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1320, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1263.

GBP/USD – 1.3355 (-93 or -0.69%)

GBPUSD moved sharply lower this week, losing -0.69% and showing clear bearish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 21:00 – BoE Monetary Policy Report (GBP)

Thu 21:00 – BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP)

Thu 23:15 – BoE Governor Bailey Speech (GBP)

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3388. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3422, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3455 and potentially 1.3522.

If we cannot close above 1.3322, we could see a move back to test 1.3288 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3255, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3188.


USD/JPY – 163.56 (+111 or +0.68%)

USDJPY climbed strongly this week, gaining +0.68% and showing clear bullish momentum as buyers remained firmly in control.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 15:00 – Consumer Confidence (JPY)

Fri 13:00 – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY)

Fri 13:00 – BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report (JPY)

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 163.97. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 164.38, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 164.79 and potentially 165.60.

If we cannot close above 163.15, we could see a move back to test 162.74 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 162.33, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 161.52.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4101 (+97 or +2.42%)

Gold surged higher this week with a strong +2.42% gain, showing powerful bullish momentum and increased buying demand. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4111. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4122, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4132 and potentially 4152.

If we cannot close above 4091, we could see a move back to test 4080 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4070, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4050.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  64947 (+236 or +0.36%)

Bitcoin moved higher this week, gaining +0.36% and showing steady bullish momentum despite relatively limited price movement. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 65109. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 65272, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 65434 and potentially 65759.

If we cannot close above 64785, we could see a move back to test 64622 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 64460, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 64135.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.