Market Brief


Will rising oil prices keep pressure on global equities?

Or can earnings season restore bullish momentum?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –   8799 (+2 or +0.02%)

The ASX edged higher this week by +0.02%, remaining broadly flat with limited directional momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Full Time Employment Change (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8821. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8843, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8865 and potentially 8909.

If we cannot close above 8777, we could see a move back to test 8755 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8733, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8689.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24828 (-115 or -0.46%)

The DAX moved lower this week by -0.46%, showing moderate bearish pressure and weakening short-term momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Thu 22:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)

Thu 22:45 – ECB Press Conference (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24890. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24952, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25014 and potentially 25138.

If we cannot close above 24766, we could see a move back to test 24704 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24642, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24518.

US

S&P 500 –  7464 (-86 or -1.14%)

The SPX declined -1.14% this week, showing clear bearish momentum as sellers pushed the market lower.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:00 – New Home Sales (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7483. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7501, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7520 and potentially 7557.

If we cannot close above 7445, we could see a move back to test 7427 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7408, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7371.

FOREX

AUD/USD –    0.6982 (+50 or +0.72%)

AUDUSD climbed +0.72% this week, showing solid bullish momentum as buyers continued to support the currency pair.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Full Time Employment Change (AUD) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:00 – New Home Sales (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6999. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7017, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7034 and potentially 0.7069.

If we cannot close above 0.6965, we could see a move back to test 0.6947 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6930, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6895.

EUR/USD – 1.1430 (+40 or +0.35%)

EURUSD gained +0.35% this week, maintaining a gradual upward trend with modest bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Thu 22:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)

Thu 22:45 – ECB Press Conference (EUR) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:00 – New Home Sales (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1459. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1487, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1516 and potentially 1.1573.

If we cannot close above 1.1401, we could see a move back to test 1.1373 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1344, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1287.

GBP/USD – 1.3448 (+75 or +0.56%)

GBPUSD advanced +0.56% this week, showing steady bullish strength as buyers pushed the pair higher.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 16:00 – Employment Change (GBP)

Tue 16:00 – Unemployment Rate (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Retail Sales MoM (GBP) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:00 – New Home Sales (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3482. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3515, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3549 and potentially 1.3616.

If we cannot close above 1.3414, we could see a move back to test 1.3381 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3347, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3280.


USD/JPY – 162.45 (+38 or +0.23%)

USDJPY rose +0.23% this week, maintaining mild bullish momentum despite a relatively limited upward move.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 09:50 – Balance of Trade (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (JPY) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:00 – New Home Sales (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 162.86. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 163.26, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 163.67 and potentially 164.48.

If we cannot close above 162.04, we could see a move back to test 161.64 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 161.23, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 160.42.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4004 (-68 or -1.67%)

Gold fell -1.67% this week, showing strong bearish momentum as sellers pushed the precious metal sharply lower. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4014. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4024, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4034 and potentially 4054.

If we cannot close above 3994, we could see a move back to test 3984 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3974, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3954.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  64711 (+1010 or +1.59%)

Bitcoin climbed +1.59% this week, showing strong bullish momentum as buyers pushed the cryptocurrency higher. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 64873. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 65035, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 65196 and potentially 65520.

If we cannot close above 64549, we could see a move back to test 64387 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 64226, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 63902.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.