Market Brief


Are geopolitical risks now starting to dominate over traditional macro drivers like inflation and interest rates, shifting the market narrative?

Could this growing uncertainty trigger a sustained risk-off move and drive further downside across global indices in the near term?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8384 (+89 or +1.07%)

The ASX pushed higher this week, gaining +1.07% and showing solid bullish momentum versus last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – Building Permits MoM (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8405. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8426, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8447 and potentially 8489.

If we cannot close above 8363, we could see a move back to test 8342 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8321, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8279.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 21967 (-74 or -0.34%)

The DAX eased lower this week, falling -0.34% and showing softer price action compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Tue 18:55 – Unemployment Rate (EUR)

Tue 20:00 – CPI (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 22022. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 22077, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 22132 and potentially 22242.

If we cannot close above 21912, we could see a move back to test 21857 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 21802, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 21692.

US

S&P 500 – 6320 (-161 or -2.48%)

The SPX fell sharply this week, dropping -2.48% and showing clear bearish momentum against last week’s price.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:30 – Fed Chair Powell Speech (USD)

Thu 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6336. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6352, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6367 and potentially 6399.

If we cannot close above 6304, we could see a move back to test 6288 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6273, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6241.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.6844 (-150 or -2.14%)

The AUDUSD moved lower this week, down -2.14%, with bearish momentum clearly dominating price action.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – Building Permits MoM (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

Tue 01:30 – Fed Chair Powell Speech (USD)

Thu 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6861. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6878, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6895 and potentially 0.6930.

If we cannot close above 0.6827, we could see a move back to test 0.6810 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6793, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6758.

EUR/USD –1.1491 (-53 or -0.46%)

The EURUSD edged lower this week, losing -0.46% and maintaining a mild bearish tone overall.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 17:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Tue 18:55 – Unemployment Rate (EUR)

Tue 20:00 – CPI (EUR)

Tue 01:30 – Fed Chair Powell Speech (USD)

Thu 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1520. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1548, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1577 and potentially 1.1635.

If we cannot close above 1.1462, we could see a move back to test 1.1434 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1405, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1347.

GBP/USD – 1.3233 (-81 or -0.61%)

The GBPUSD drifted lower this week, down -0.61%, with bearish pressure still visible in price action.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 19:30 – Mortgage Approvals (GBP)

Tue 17:00 – Current Account (GBP)

Thu 19:30 – DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (GBP)

Tue 01:30 – Fed Chair Powell Speech (USD)

Thu 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3266. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3299, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3332 and potentially 1.3398.

If we cannot close above 1.3200, we could see a move back to test 1.3167 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3134, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3068.


USD/JPY – 160.16 (+81 or +0.51%)

The USDJPY climbed higher this week, rising +0.51% and showing renewed bullish momentum into the close.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 10:50 – BoJ Summary of Opinions (JPY)

Tue 10:50 – Retail Sales YoY (JPY)

Wed 10:50 – Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (JPY)

Tue 01:30 – Fed Chair Powell Speech (USD)

Thu 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 160.56. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 160.96, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 161.36 and potentially 162.16.

If we cannot close above 159.76, we could see a move back to test 159.36 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 158.96, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 158.16.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4439 (+102 or +2.35%)

Gold pushed higher this week, gaining +2.35% and continuing to show strong bullish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4450. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4461, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4472 and potentially 4494.

If we cannot close above 4428, we could see a move back to test 4417 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4406, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4384.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 65820 (-6804 or -9.37%)

Bitcoin dropped hard this week, falling -9.37% and showing strong bearish momentum compared to last week.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 65985. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 66149, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 66314 and potentially 66643.

If we cannot close above 65655, we could see a move back to test 65491 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 65326, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 64997.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.