Market Brief


Is the renewed bid in gold an early warning of rising macro uncertainty?

Can the dollar sustain strength if upcoming data confirms economic resilience?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8730 (-23 or -0.26%)

The ASX edged lower this week with a mild −0.26% decline, showing short-term consolidation and slightly bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (Nov) AUD
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Jan) AUD
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jan) AUD
Mon 11:30 – Household Spending MoM (Nov) AUD


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8752. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8774, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8795 and potentially 8839.


If we cannot close above 8708, we could see a move back to test 8686 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8665, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8621.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25263 (+679 or +2.76%)

The DAX surged strongly higher this week, posting a +2.76% gain and confirming powerful bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Sun 21:00 – CPI (Dec) EUR
Mon 19:20 – ECB Guindos Speech EUR
Thu 20:00 – Full Year GDP Growth (2025) EUR

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25326. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25389, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25452 and potentially 25579.


If we cannot close above 25200, we could see a move back to test 25137 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25074, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24947.

US

S&P 500 – 6953 (+91 or +1.33%)

The SPX continued higher this week with a +1.33% gain, maintaining a steady bullish trend and positive momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY & MoM (Dec) USD
Thu 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Nov) USD
Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Jan/10) USD

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6970. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6988, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7005 and potentially 7040.


If we cannot close above 6936, we could see a move back to test 6918 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6901, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6866.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6685 (-7 or -0.1%)

AUDUSD drifted slightly lower this week, showing mild bearish pressure and continued range-bound conditions.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Jan) AUD
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jan) AUD
Mon 11:30 – Household Spending MoM (Nov) AUD
Wed 00:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY & MoM (Dec) USD
Thu 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Nov) USD
Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Jan/10) USD

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6702. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6718, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6735 and potentially 0.6768.


If we cannot close above 0.6668, we could see a move back to test 0.6652 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6635, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6602.

EUR/USD – 1.1632 (-77 or -0.66%)

EURUSD weakened this week with a −0.66% decline, maintaining a short-term bearish trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Sun 21:00 – CPI (Dec) EUR
Mon 19:20 – ECB Guindos Speech EUR
Thu 20:00 – Full Year GDP Growth (2025) EUR
Wed 00:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY & MoM (Dec) USD
Thu 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Nov) USD
Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Jan/10) USD


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1661. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1690, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1719 and potentially 1.1778.


If we cannot close above 1.1603, we could see a move back to test 1.1574 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1545, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1486.

GBP/USD – 1.3395 (-56 or -0.42%)

GBPUSD moved lower this week, posting a −0.42% decline and reinforcing short-term bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Dec) GBP
Thu 18:00 – GDP MoM (Nov) GBP
Thu 18:00 – GDP YoY (Nov) GBP
Wed 00:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY & MoM (Dec) USD
Thu 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Nov) USD
Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Jan/10) USD

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3428. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3462, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3496 and potentially 1.3562.


If we cannot close above 1.3361, we could see a move back to test 1.3327 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3293, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3227.


USD/JPY – 158.01 (+122 or +0.78%)

USDJPY pushed higher this week with a +0.78% gain, maintaining bullish momentum within an uptrend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:50 – Current Account (Nov) JPY
Mon 10:50 – Machinery Orders MoM (Nov) JPY
Mon 10:50 – Machinery Orders YoY (Nov) JPY
Wed 00:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY & MoM (Dec) USD
Thu 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Nov) USD
Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Jan/10) USD

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.41. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.81, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 159.21 and potentially 159.99.


If we cannot close above 157.61, we could see a move back to test 157.21 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.81, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 156.03.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4525 (+158 or +3.62%)

Gold surged sharply higher this week with a strong +3.62% rally, confirming powerful bullish momentum.


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4536. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4547, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4558 and potentially 4581.


If we cannot close above 4514, we could see a move back to test 4503 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4492, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4469.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  90269 (-1123 or -1.23%)

Bitcoin pulled back this week with a −1.23% decline, suggesting short-term corrective pressure within a broader trend.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 90495. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 90721, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 90947 and potentially 91402.


If we cannot close above 90043, we could see a move back to test 89817 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 89591, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 89141.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.