Market Brief


Bitcoin drops below key support and shakes investor confidence

With Bitcoin dropping below US $95k and investor sentiment weakening, is the crypto market entering a deeper correction? Could institutional outflows and growing volatility push prices even lower in the short term?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8603 (-188 or -2.14%)

The ASX dropped -2.14% this week, showing renewed bearish pressure as price continues trending lower from last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Wed 00:00 – AUD Westpac Leading Index
Wed 23:55 – AUD RBA Connolly Speech

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8624. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8646, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8668 and potentially 8711.

If we cannot close above 8582, we could see a move back to test 8560 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8538, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8495.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 23808 (+50 or +0.21%)

The DAX ticked higher this week with a modest +0.21% gain, showing light but steady upward momentum from last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 08:15 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech
Wed 10:00 – EUR CPI (Oct)
Thu 05:30 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23867. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23927, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23986 and potentially 24106.

If we cannot close above 23748, we could see a move back to test 23689 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23630, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23510.

US

S&P 500 -6727 (-7 or -0.1%)

The SPX slipped -0.1% this week, signalling mild bearish pressure as the index continues to edge slightly lower.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 13:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wed 13:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Thu 19:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6744. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6761, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6778 and potentially 6811.

If we cannot close above 6710, we could see a move back to test 6693 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6676, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6643.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6534 (+40 or +0.62%)
AUDUSD advanced +0.62% this week, showing steady bullish momentum and a clear shift higher compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Wed 00:00 – AUD Westpac Leading Index
Wed 23:55 – AUD RBA Connolly Speech
Mon 13:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wed 13:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Thu 19:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6550. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6567, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6583 and potentially 0.6616.

If we cannot close above 0.6518, we could see a move back to test 0.6501 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6485, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6452.

EUR/USD – 1.1623 (+68 or +0.59%)

EURUSD gained +0.59% this week, continuing its upward traction as the euro strengthens gradually against the dollar.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 08:15 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech
Wed 10:00 – EUR CPI (Oct)
Thu 05:30 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Oct)
Mon 13:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wed 13:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Thu 19:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1652. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1681, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1710 and potentially 1.1768.

If we cannot close above 1.1594, we could see a move back to test 1.1565 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1536, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1478.

GBP/USD – 1.13169 (+19 or +0.14%)

GBPUSD edged slightly higher this week with a +0.14% gain, showing a mild but positive bullish tilt.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 07:00 – GBP Inflation Rate YoY (Oct)
Wed 07:00 – GBP Inflation Rate MoM (Oct)
Wed 07:00 – GBP Core Inflation Rate YoY (Oct)
Mon 13:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wed 13:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Thu 19:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3202. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3235, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3268 and potentially 1.3334.

If we cannot close above 1.3136, we could see a move back to test 1.3103 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3070, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3004.


USD/JPY – 154.49 (+80 or +0.52%)

USDJPY climbed +0.52% this week, pushing higher as bullish momentum continues to strengthen in the yen pair.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 13:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wed 13:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Thu 19:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 154.8762. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 155.2625, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 155.6487 and potentially 156.4211.
If we cannot close above 154.1038, we could see a move back to test 153.7176 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 153.3313, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 152.5589.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4098 (+96 or +2.4%)

Gold rallied +2.4% this week, showing strong bullish momentum as the metal continues breaking higher.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4108. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4120, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4130 and potentially 4150.


If we cannot close above 4088, we could see a move back to test 4078 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4068, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4049.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 93401 (-21099 or -18.43%)

BTC plunged -18.43% this week, showing aggressive bearish momentum as the market breaks sharply lower.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 93634. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 93868, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 94102 and potentially 94569.

If we cannot close above 93166, we could see a move back to test 92934 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 92701, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 92233.

DISCLAIMER

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