Market Brief


SPX & Nasdaq rebound sharply as tariff tensions ease

With Trump’s latest remarks hinting at a more diplomatic approach toward China, investors appear to be breathing a sigh of relief. Could this shift in tone signal a short-term boost in risk appetite and spark renewed momentum across equities, or will lingering trade uncertainty continue to cap upside potential?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8927 (-98 or -1.09%)

The ASX slipped -1.09% this week, showing weakness as local equities retreated and risk sentiment softened across global indices.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (Sep) – AUD

Tue 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes – AUD

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (Sep) – AUD

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8949. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8971, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8993 and potentially 9038.

If we cannot close above 8905, we could see a move back to test 8883 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8861, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8816.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24287 (-139 or -0.57%)

The DAX eased -0.57% this week, pausing after recent gains and showing mild consolidation amid mixed European data.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 18:40 – ECB Guindos Speech – EUR

Thu 20:00 – Balance of Trade (Aug) – EUR

Fri 20:00 – CPI (Sep) – EUR

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24348. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24399, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24449 and potentially 24590.

If we cannot close above 24226, we could see a move back to test 24175 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24124, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23983.

US

S&P 500 – 6617 (-108 or -1.61%)

The SPX fell -1.61% this week, extending its pullback as U.S. stocks faced renewed selling pressure and profit-taking.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 03:20 – Fed Chair Powell Speech – USD

Thu 23:30 – Retail Sales MoM (Sep) – USD

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/11) – USD

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6633. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6650, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6666 and potentially 6699.

If we cannot close above 6601, we could see a move back to test 6585 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6568, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6535.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6494 (-96 or -1.46%)

AUDUSD dropped -1.46% this week, showing continued downside momentum as the stronger USD weighed on the Australian dollar.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (Sep) – AUD

Tue 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes – AUD

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (Sep) – AUD

Wed 03:20 – Fed Chair Powell Speech – USD

Thu 23:30 – Retail Sales MoM (Sep) – USD

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/11) – USD

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6510. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6527, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6543 and potentially 0.6575.

If we cannot close above 0.6478, we could see a move back to test 0.6461 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6445, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6412.

EUR/USD – 1.1608 (-110 or -0.94%)

EURUSD declined -0.94% this week, extending its losing streak as the euro weakened on softer sentiment and USD resilience.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 18:40 – ECB Guindos Speech – EUR

Thu 20:00 – Balance of Trade (Aug) – EUR

Fri 20:00 – CPI (Sep) – EUR

Wed 03:20 – Fed Chair Powell Speech – USD

Thu 23:30 – Retail Sales MoM (Sep) – USD

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/11) – USD

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1637. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1666, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1695 and potentially 1.1755.

If we cannot close above 1.1579, we could see a move back to test 1.1550 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1521, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1461.

GBP/USD – 1.3345 (-86 or -0.64%)

GBPUSD edged lower -0.64% this week, reflecting modest bearish pressure ahead of key UK economic data.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Sep) – GBP

Tue 17:00 – Unemployment Rate (Aug) – GBP

Thu 17:00 – GDP MoM (Aug) – GBP

Wed 03:20 – Fed Chair Powell Speech – USD

Thu 23:30 – Retail Sales MoM (Sep) – USD

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/11) – USD

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3378. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3412, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3445 and potentially 1.3512.

If we cannot close above 1.3312, we could see a move back to test 1.3279 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3245, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3178.

USD/JPY – 151.86 (+259 or +1.74%)

USDJPY climbed +1.74% this week, extending its uptrend as yen weakness persisted and the pair maintained strong bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 10:50 – Machinery Orders MoM (Aug) – JPY

Mon 20:50 – BoJ Takada Speech – JPY

Fri 17:35 – BoJ Uchida Speech – JPY

Wed 03:20 – Fed Chair Powell Speech – USD

Thu 23:30 – Retail Sales MoM (Sep) – USD

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/11) – USD

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 152.24. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 152.62, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 153.00 and potentially 153.85.

If we cannot close above 151.48, we could see a move back to test 151.10 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 150.72, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 149.87.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4056 (+164 or +4.21%)

Gold surged +4.21% this week, breaking higher as safe-haven demand lifted the metal amid geopolitical and inflation concerns.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4066. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4076, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4086 and potentially 4106.

If we cannot close above 4046, we could see a move back to test 4036 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4026, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4006.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 114838 (-7993 or -6.51%)

Bitcoin plunged -6.51% this week, reversing sharply lower as traders locked in profits after its recent rally.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 115 125. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 115 562, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 115 999 and potentially 116 873.

If we cannot close above 114 551, we could see a move back to test 114 114 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 113 677, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 112 803.

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