This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX –7690 (+490 or +6.81%)
AU200 is surging—nearly 7% weekly gain signals strong bullish momentum and a powerful breakout from recent consolidation.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Mar)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7710. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7730, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7750 and potentially 7790.
If we cannot close above 7670, we could see a move back to test 7650 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7630, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7580.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 20832 (+1238 or +6.32%)
Solid rally of +6.32%—strong upward pressure continues.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Apr)
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:45 – EUR ECB Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 20884. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 20936, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 20988 and potentially 21092.
If we cannot close above 20779, we could see a move back to test 20727 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 20675, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 20571.
US
S&P 500 – 5397 (+531 or +10.91%)
+10.91%, one of the biggest moves this year.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/12)
Tue 22:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr)
Wed 22:30 – USD Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5410. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5423, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5437 and potentially 5464.
If we cannot close above 5383, we could see a move back to test 5370 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5356, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5329.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6300 (+308 or +5.14%)
Firm gain of +5.14%, AUD is climbing.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Mar)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Mar)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/12)
Tue 22:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr)
Wed 22:30 – USD Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6315. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6331, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6347 and potentially 0.6378.
If we cannot close above 0.6284, we could see a move back to test 0.6268 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6252, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6221.
EUR/USD – 1.1356 (+365 or +3.32%)
Moderate strength at +3.32%—EUR building gradually.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Apr)
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:45 – EUR ECB Press Conference
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/12)
Tue 22:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr)
Wed 22:30 – USD Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1384. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1412, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1441 and potentially 1.1497.
If we cannot close above 1.1327, we could see a move back to test 1.1299 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1270, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1214.
GBP/USD – 1.3089 (+164 or +1.27%)
Mild upside move of +1.27%.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:01 – GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Mar)
Tue 16:00 – GBP Employment Change (Feb)
Tue 16:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate (Feb)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/12)
Tue 22:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr)
Wed 22:30 – USD Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3121. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3154, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3187 and potentially 1.3252.
If we cannot close above 1.3056, we could see a move back to test 1.3023 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2990, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2925.
USD/JPY – 143.27 (-183 or -1.26%)
Downward pressure evident with a -1.26% fall.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 09:50 – JPY Machinery Orders YoY (Feb)
Thu 09:50 – JPY Balance of Trade (Mar)
Fri 09:30 – JPY Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/12)
Tue 22:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr)
Wed 22:30 – USD Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 143.62. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 143.98, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 144.34 and potentially 145.06.
If we cannot close above 142.91, we could see a move back to test 142.55 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 142.19, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 141.47..
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3219 (+225 or +7.52%)
Impressive +7.52% rally—gold regains shine and momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3227. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3235, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3243 and potentially 3259.
If we cannot close above 3210, we could see a move back to test 3202 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3194, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3178.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 84382 (+6332 or +8.11%)
+8.11% move.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 84592. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 84803, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 85014 and potentially 85436.
If we cannot close above 84171, we could see a move back to test 83960 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 83749, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 83327.
